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Posted on 29-1-08 Swinging With Roundabouts
By Alan Marston, 28 January 2008 Photo shows J Paul Getty
J Paul Getty was once asked how he got to be the richest man in the world
- I dear say he was asked that many times but one answer stuck - he
replied `I sold when everyone else was buying and I bought when everyone
else was selling'.
I think the deeper significance of that undoubted insight is that
economics is PR for the law of the jungle and if you want to be alpha then
indifference to omega has to be at the core of your persona. Specifically,
when most people are suffering economic down-turn that is a golden
opportunity to exploit their need to sell and when most people are
confident of their economic future that is an opportunity to exploit their
desire to buy. The key concept is exploit, exploit again and then exploit
after that and to hell with any moderating concept like ethics,
social-good and/or ecological sustainability.
The era of J Paul Gettydom is not over so if one wants to survive
Economics then good information is of the essence. I believe the below is
good information about what to expect in a `recession'.
1. In a recession alphas will take advantage of omega's declining fortune,
for instance buying the repossessed home at a knockdown price and
investing in those companies that supply narcomania inducers such as
alcohol/tobacco/pharmaceuticals and buying up shares in utilities that
people believe they can't live without such as electrical and water (and
internet?) suppliers and setting up companies that supply private armies
which are meant to protect the alphas from the desperate omegas.
2. Not everyone is against recession/depression/inflation. All those who
`work for the government' or in the industries in point 1 or in the
survivors of the banking industry or auctioneers. Ie., all those who have
some sort of sustained line of income/credit and/or have money to spend
view recessions as a golden-age.
3. Being as there will be be a lot of companies going belly up during the
lean-years you will see share price increases and fortunes being made in
corporate insolvency and recovery specialists and desperate-credit
loan-sharks. Vultures do well during droughts, such is the ecology of
economics.
4. The numbers gambling will go down but the stakes of those who continue
to gamble will go up, especially so in the global roulette-wheel that is
the international stock-market.
5. Government workers (bureaucrats, police, army, politicians) will be
buying sports cars and holiday mansions and other toys because lots of
erstwhile alpha's will be selling them cheap.
6. Bling will be melted down and stored in bank vaults or sold to those
who want their gold in the bank not on the broad.
7. Marriage will become even more unobtainable and unsustainable than it
already is.
8. Theft will take yet another step toward legitimisation.
Hang on to your hats, here we go down the big slide, better to be thrilled
than spilled.
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