Posted on 14-11-2002

Iraq Invasion Trigger Human Catastrophe
by George Edmondson, Toronto Star, Tuesday, 11 November, 2002

A report to be released today predicts that an invasion of Iraq could lead
to a "human catastrophe" with casualties as high as 250,000 within the
first three months. "Collateral Damage: The Health and Environmental Costs
of War on Iraq" was prepared largely by Medact, the British affiliate of
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. The U.S.
affiliate, Physicians for Social Responsibility, also was involved. Most of
the estimated casualties would be Iraqi civilians caught in the bombing,
said Bob Schaeffer, a spokesman in Massachusetts for the International
Physicians organization. It was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1985 for
what the committee called its "considerable service to mankind by spreading
authoritative information and by creating an awareness of the catastrophic
consequences of atomic warfare.''

The study also looks at the impact of an invasion on the public health
system and necessities such as agriculture, water and energy, he said.
"We're saying that there'll be a very large short-term impact and an even
more profound longer-term impact," Schaeffer said. "The report uses the
word `human catastrophe' even if it does not escalate to the level of
poison gas, civil war or nuclear weapons.'' The estimates of casualties, he
said, range from a low of 50,000 up to 250,000.

James Snyder, spokesman in Washington for Physicians for Social
Responsibility, said the report utilizes information about likely Iraq
invasion scenarios as well as knowledge gleaned from study of the 1991
Persian Gulf War and U.S. actions in Somalia and Panama. Schaeffer said
physicians associated with the international organization also had made
some inspection tours, and their findings were factored in. "The estimates
and ranges are based on sound science and previous experience," Snyder said.

There has not been much public data on the extent of possible casualties
from an invasion of Iraq. A number of experts at the Pentagon and elsewhere
have discussed the possibility of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein using human
shields and placing military targets within civilian sites, such as
hospitals and schools.

Ibrahim Al-Marashi, an analyst at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies in California who favors an invasion, said such estimates are
extremely difficult because there are so many variables about how a war
might unfold. "The way Saddam would respond is such a wild card in this,"
he added.