Posted on 11-3-2002

Spectre Of Nuclear War Crawls
From Political Swamp
By PAUL RICHTER, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer,March 9, 2002 (abridged)

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration has directed the military to prepare
contingency plans to use nuclear weapons against at least seven countries
and to build smaller nuclear weapons for use in certain battlefield
situations, according to a classified Pentagon report obtained by the Los
Angeles Times.

The secret report, which was provided to Congress on Jan. 8, says the
Pentagon needs to be prepared to use nuclear weapons against China, Russia,
Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya and Syria. It says the weapons could be used
in three types of situations: against targets able to withstand nonnuclear
attack; in retaliation for attack with nuclear, biological or chemical
weapons; or "in the event of surprising military developments." A copy of
the report was obtained by defense analyst and Times contributor William
Arkin. His column on the contents appears in Sunday's editions.

Officials have long acknowledged that they had detailed nuclear plans for
an attack on Russia. However, this "Nuclear Posture Review" apparently
marks the first time that an official list of potential target countries
has come to light, analysts said. Some predicted the disclosure would set
off strong reactions from governments of the target countries. "This is
dynamite," said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear arms expert at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "I can imagine what these
countries are going to be saying at the U.N." Arms control advocates said
the report's directives on development of smaller nuclear weapons could
signal that the Bush administration is more willing to overlook a
long-standing taboo against the use of nuclear weapons except as a last
resort. They warned that such moves could dangerously destabilize the world
by encouraging other countries to believe that they, too, should develop
weapons. "They're trying desperately to find new uses for nuclear weapons,
when their uses should be limited to deterrence," said John Isaacs,
president of the Council for a Livable World. "This is very, very dangerous
talk . . . Dr. Strangelove is clearly still alive in the Pentagon."

But some conservative analysts insisted that the Pentagon must prepare for
all possible contingencies, especially now, when dozens of countries, and
some terrorist groups, are engaged in secret weapon development programs.

Congress requested the reassessment of the U.S. nuclear posture in
September 2000. The last such review was conducted in 1994 by the Clinton
administration. The new report, signed by Secretary of Defense Donald H.
Rumsfeld, is now being used by the U.S. Strategic Command to prepare a
nuclear war plan. Bush administration officials have publicly provided only
sketchy details of the nuclear review. They have publicly emphasized the
parts of the policy suggesting that the administration wants to reduce
reliance on nuclear weapons. Since the Clinton administration's review is
also classified, no specific contrast can be drawn. However, analysts
portrayed this report as representing a break with earlier policy.

The report says the Pentagon should be prepared to use nuclear weapons in
an Arab-Israeli conflict, in a war between China and Taiwan, or in an
attack from North Korea on the south. They might also become necessary in
an attack by Iraq on Israel or another neighbor, it said. The report says
Russia is no longer officially an "enemy." Yet it acknowledges that the
huge Russian arsenal, which includes about 6,000 deployed warheads and
perhaps 10,000 smaller "theater" nuclear weapons, remains of concern.
Pentagon officials have said publicly that they were studying the need to
develop theater nuclear weapons, designed for use against specific targets
on a battlefield, but had not committed themselves to that course.
Officials have often spoken of the advantages of using nuclear weapons to
destroy the deep tunnel and cave complexes that many regimes have been
building, especially since the Persian Gulf War of 1991. Nuclear weapons
give off powerful shock waves that can crush structures deep in the Earth,
they point out. Officials argue that large nuclear arms have so many
destructive side effects, from blast to heat and radiation, that they
become "self-deterring." They contend the Pentagon needs "full spectrum
deterrence"--that is, a full range of weapons that potential enemies
believe might be used against them.

Analysts said the report's reference to "surprising military developments"
referred to the Pentagon's fears that a rogue regime or terrorist group
might suddenly unleash a wholly unknown weapon that was difficult to
counter with the conventional U.S. arsenal. The administration has proposed
cutting the offensive nuclear arsenal by about two-thirds, to between 1,700
and 2,200 missiles, within 10 years. Officials have also said they want to
use precision guided conventional munitions in some missions that might
have previously been accomplished with nuclear arms.

But critics said the report contradicts suggestions the Bush administration
wants to cut the nuclear role. "This clearly makes nuclear weapons a tool
for fighting a war, rather than deterring them," said Cirincione.