Posted on 11-3-2002
Spectre
Of Nuclear War Crawls
From
Political Swamp
By PAUL RICHTER, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer,March 9, 2002
(abridged)
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration has directed the military
to prepare
contingency plans to use nuclear weapons against at least seven
countries
and to build smaller nuclear weapons for use in certain battlefield
situations, according to a classified Pentagon report obtained
by the Los
Angeles Times.
The secret report, which was provided to Congress on Jan. 8,
says the
Pentagon needs to be prepared to use nuclear weapons against
China, Russia,
Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya and Syria. It says the weapons
could be used
in three types of situations: against targets able to withstand
nonnuclear
attack; in retaliation for attack with nuclear, biological or
chemical
weapons; or "in the event of surprising military developments."
A copy of
the report was obtained by defense analyst and Times contributor
William
Arkin. His column on the contents appears in Sunday's editions.
Officials have long acknowledged that they had detailed nuclear
plans for
an attack on Russia. However, this "Nuclear Posture Review"
apparently
marks the first time that an official list of potential target
countries
has come to light, analysts said. Some predicted the disclosure
would set
off strong reactions from governments of the target countries.
"This is
dynamite," said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear arms expert at
the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "I can imagine
what these
countries are going to be saying at the U.N." Arms control advocates
said
the report's directives on development of smaller nuclear weapons
could
signal that the Bush administration is more willing to overlook
a
long-standing taboo against the use of nuclear weapons except
as a last
resort. They warned that such moves could dangerously destabilize
the world
by encouraging other countries to believe that they, too, should
develop
weapons. "They're trying desperately to find new uses for nuclear
weapons,
when their uses should be limited to deterrence," said John
Isaacs,
president of the Council for a Livable World. "This is very,
very dangerous
talk . . . Dr. Strangelove is clearly still alive in the Pentagon."
But some conservative analysts insisted that the Pentagon must
prepare for
all possible contingencies, especially now, when dozens of countries,
and
some terrorist groups, are engaged in secret weapon development
programs.
Congress requested the reassessment of the U.S. nuclear posture
in
September 2000. The last such review was conducted in 1994 by
the Clinton
administration. The new report, signed by Secretary of Defense
Donald H.
Rumsfeld, is now being used by the U.S. Strategic Command to
prepare a
nuclear war plan. Bush administration officials have publicly
provided only
sketchy details of the nuclear review. They have publicly emphasized
the
parts of the policy suggesting that the administration wants
to reduce
reliance on nuclear weapons. Since the Clinton administration's
review is
also classified, no specific contrast can be drawn. However,
analysts
portrayed this report as representing a break with earlier policy.
The report says the Pentagon should be prepared to use nuclear
weapons in
an Arab-Israeli conflict, in a war between China and Taiwan,
or in an
attack from North Korea on the south. They might also become
necessary in
an attack by Iraq on Israel or another neighbor, it said. The
report says
Russia is no longer officially an "enemy." Yet it acknowledges
that the
huge Russian arsenal, which includes about 6,000 deployed warheads
and
perhaps 10,000 smaller "theater" nuclear weapons, remains of
concern.
Pentagon officials have said publicly that they were studying
the need to
develop theater nuclear weapons, designed for use against specific
targets
on a battlefield, but had not committed themselves to that course.
Officials have often spoken of the advantages of using nuclear
weapons to
destroy the deep tunnel and cave complexes that many regimes
have been
building, especially since the Persian Gulf War of 1991. Nuclear
weapons
give off powerful shock waves that can crush structures deep
in the Earth,
they point out. Officials argue that large nuclear arms have
so many
destructive side effects, from blast to heat and radiation,
that they
become "self-deterring." They contend the Pentagon needs "full
spectrum
deterrence"--that is, a full range of weapons that potential
enemies
believe might be used against them.
Analysts said the report's reference to "surprising military
developments"
referred to the Pentagon's fears that a rogue regime or terrorist
group
might suddenly unleash a wholly unknown weapon that was difficult
to
counter with the conventional U.S. arsenal. The administration
has proposed
cutting the offensive nuclear arsenal by about two-thirds, to
between 1,700
and 2,200 missiles, within 10 years. Officials have also said
they want to
use precision guided conventional munitions in some missions
that might
have previously been accomplished with nuclear arms.
But critics said the report contradicts suggestions the Bush
administration
wants to cut the nuclear role. "This clearly makes nuclear weapons
a tool
for fighting a war, rather than deterring them," said Cirincione.
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