Posted on 2-12-2003
Guerrilla
War in Iraq Spreading
By Bryan Bender, The Boston Globe, 29 November 2003
The guerrilla war in Iraq has moved steadily beyond the so-called
Sunni Triangle and into areas of the country once considered
peaceful, a potentially ominous development for security forces
trying to restore order in the country.
Since the end of major combat operations on May 1, nearly
40 percent of attacks on US and coalition targets have been
outside the Sunni Triangle, home to many remnants of former
Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's regime, according to internal
Defense Department reports obtained by the Globe.
The monthly breakdown is classified, but Defense Department
officials confirmed that the number of attacks occurring in
the far north, south, and far western Iraq -- areas outside
the Sunni Triangle, which is immediately north and west of the
capital of Baghdad -- has increased in recent months.
This week alone, two US soldiers were shot, dragged,
and hit with rocks in the northern city of Mosul and another
was killed there yesterday in a rocket attack, adding to growing
violence in what had been considered a relatively stable city.
"We have seen an increase," General Richard
B. Myers, the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, said on Tuesday,
referring to the attacks outside the triangle, though he described
the increase as modest and insisted that those attacks were
probably due to remnants of Saddam Hussein's government.
US forces have stepped up patrols inside the triangle
in recent days, hoping to knock out leaders of the insurgency.
Myers said military leaders are still examining the rate and
location of the attacks outside the triangle to determine how
best to contain them.
"We're still looking at what this means in terms
of the strategy of the former regime elements that we're up
against. How they're tied regionally within Iraq and how they're
tied nationwide is to be determined," Myers said. "We
don't have as much insight there as we need, and we're working
on that insight."
But US intelligence officials said the widening range
of attacks could have serious implications for US efforts to
quell the guerrilla war, turning citizens from peaceful areas
against the coalition forces if it is unable to provide security.
"What I worry about is broader support [among Iraqis]
for the insurgent guerrilla activity," said a senior US
intelligence official who asked not to be identified. The official
added that most of Iraq so far appears to be supportive, or
at least tolerant, of the US operation. But "only time
will tell."
The Sunni Triangle is home to most of the country's Sunni
Muslims, members of Hussein's ethnic group. Southern Iraq, home
to the country's majority Shi'ite Muslims, and the Kurdish-dominated
north have been more receptive to the US occupation, but guerrilla
attacks in those areas have been increasing.
Since May, when major combat operations were declared
over, a total of 2,227 guerrilla attacks took place in the Sunni
Triangle, according to figures as of the end of last week. The
rest of the country has had 1,416 attacks, most of them against
occupation forces.
The attacks outside the triangle have included the use
of small-arms fire, rocket-propelled grenades, and improvised
explosive devices, military officials said. They have targeted
US and coalition troops, but also Iraqi security forces and
civilians, as well as public infrastructure, such as electrical
grids and pipelines.
Military analysts said the widening of the location of
attacks is characteristic of a classic guerrilla campaign, in
which insurgents seek to destabilize areas of the country that
are considered peaceful, slowly expanding the war zone until
most of the country fears for its security.
The number of attacks in the southeast sector of the
country, where the Shi'ite Muslim and relatively pro-US city
of Basra is located, has doubled since August, according to
the military's statistics. The exact number of those attacks
per month is classified, according to a military official.
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, speaking with reporters
on Tuesday, downplayed the significance of the recent spike
in attacks in Shi'ite areas...
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