Posted on 27-5-2004

Ooh aah, Chávez no se va!
By Sibylla Brodzinsky, May 25, 2004, The Guardian

Venezuela is oil rich, that means trouble for anyone who rocks the boat
that floats on that oil, the oil cartels and their political
representatives.


Not even the birds in Venezuela are indifferent to the country's
controversial president, Hugo Chávez. In the modest brick home of Cármen
Aquiles, which clings to the hills on the western edge of Carácas's
sprawling slums, one of her brilliant green-plumed parrots spontaneously
breaks into its owner's favourite chant: " Ooh aah, Chávez no se va! "
(Chávez isn't going).

It is music to the ears of Ms Aquiles, a tough 52-year-old grandmother and
community organiser in her neighbourhood, El Guanábano. She and her family
are fervent supporters of the firebrand left-leaning president and his
self-styled revolution. "Chávez is the only president ever to work for us,
the poor people," she says in the living room of her home, where a framed
picture of the president is on prominent display.

But while Ms Aquiles sees the president as a saviour, others regard him as
a budding dictator whom they want ousted. In its last chance to remove the
president constitutionally, the opposition this week hopes to be able to
validate more than a million signatures on a petition to trigger a recall
vote against Mr Chávez.

It may also be the last chance to avoid a civil war, experts say. In a
country so deeply polarised over the president, the potential for violence
is high. Dozens of people have died in clashes between pro- and
anti-Chávez groups during the past several years. The latest deaths came
in February, when at least 14 people died in opposition demonstrations and
as many as 200 were wounded. Several of those detained were ill-treated or
tortured by members of the security forces, according to Amnesty
International.

Mr Chávez, a paratroop commander responsible for one failed coup attempt,
was elected in 1998 by a large majority of Venezuelans frustrated with the
country's corrupt politics. But his support began to dwindle when his
discourse became more left-leaning and he began attacking what he calls
the "rancid oligarchy". Many fear that his friendship with Fidel Castro
could herald a Cuban-style socialist system for Venezuela, and worry about
his apparent sympathy with neighbouring Colombia's leftwing rebels.

General strike

The opposition used street demonstrations to try to force his resignation
and last year staged a two-month general strike that paralysed the
economy, but only led him to tighten his grip on power.

Spray-painted on the walls of Carácas's eastern neighbourhoods where the
middle and upper classes live, is the cryptic message "RR or 350".
Residents explain: either they get a recall referendum or they will apply
article 350 of the constitution, which says that Venezuelans can rise up
against any regime that violates democracy or human rights. "If there is
no referendum, there could be civil war, with thousands of deaths," says
Dino Magnificó, a 70-ish Italian immigrant, sitting at a placid cafe in
the Bello Campo neighbourhood. His opinion echoes a warning from the
International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based thinktank, in a recent report
on Venezuela.

Analysts, and even some opposition members, say the cards are so stacked
against them that the likelihood of a referendum is low. "It's like
getting in the ring with a boxer who has bought the referee, paid off the
spectators and is going to bite your ear off," says Michael Rowan, an
American political strategist who has lived in Venezuela for more than 30
years.

The opposition accuses Mr Chávez of manipulating the process for a recall
vote, enshrined in the 2000 constitution for any elected figure who is
halfway through his term. They complain that the election board controlled
by his supporters has changed the rules repeatedly. The board questioned
the validity of more than 1 million of the signatures collected in the
petition drive last year, leading to the verification process this
weekend. The opposition needs 2.4 million valid signatures to trigger a
referendum.

The arrest in Venezuela this month of more than 100 suspected Colombian
paramilitaries who the government says were recruited to assassinate him,
is seen by the opposition as an attempt to divert attention from the
referendum issue and to round up dissidents. Police have arrested at least
seven military officers and several civilians since the alleged plot was
foiled.

It would not be the first time the Chávez regime has been threatened. Mr
Chávez was ousted briefly in April 2002 by a military rebellion, but
returned to power two days later.

Broad coalition

Timoteo Zambrano, a leader of a broad coalition of opposition political
parties, business organisations, labour unions and civic groups known as
the Democratic Coordinator, says if the election board fails to recognise
the signatures as valid, or if the government somehow manages to
manipulate the outcome of the signature verification drive, the
organisation will concentrate on elections in 2006, when Mr Chávez's term
ends. But he warns there is no telling what individuals will do. "Once you
close off democratic and constitutional avenues, people look for other
ways to achieve their goals." He calls Mr Chávez's government a
"constitutional dictatorship".

For all his vitriolic rhetoric against the US and George Bush, Washington
has so far failed to engage Mr Chávez directly in the fight. However, the
US Congress has funded some opposition groups through a non-governmental
organisation.

As long as the oil keeps flowing from the world's fifth largest petroleum
exporter to the US, and American companies get lucrative production
contracts from the state-owned oil company, Washington does not appear
overly willing to confront Mr Chávez.

Mr Chávez was wildly popular when he was first elected in 1998 on promises
to tear down Venezuela's corrupt political system. He managed to push
through a new constitution which expanded presidential power, but his
approval ratings dipped to 30% last year. That was when his government
decided to start making good on its promises to help the poor.

A series of Cuban-style literacy drives and free neighbourhood health
clinics run by Cuban doctors were launched in the poorest barrios. People
are grateful and approval ratings have jumped back to a more comfortable
40%. The programmes have swayed some of Mr Chávez's former opponents. Irma
Doudier's hair is thinning, she is missing most of her bottom teeth and
her skin is dry and cracked. But she is a vibrant community leader in the
Barrios Unidos shanty town.

A lifelong member of Copei, one of the two traditional political parties
that are part of the opposition, Ms Doudier, 60, signed the petition
against Mr Chávez last year. But she says she will withdraw it next
weekend. "Community work has no ideology. The government has given things
for the community. It is helping my people with its missions," she says.
"Whoever gives us what we need, that is who I'm for."

But Luis Contréras, an upmarket butcher, differs. "I signed of course," he
says. "But apparently there was some problem with my signature, so I will
go and verify it. I'm proud to have signed. We've got to get that crazy
man out."