Posted on 22-2-2003

CIA - Globalisation Dangerous And Expensive
by Edward Alden

The heads of the main US intelligence agencies warned on Tuesday that
globalisation, which has been the driving force behind the expansion of the
world economy, has become a serious threat to US security.

In a bleak assessment of the threats facing the US, the Senate intelligence
committee was told that nuclear proliferation, failing economies, rising
anti-Americanism and terrorist recruiting pose grave dangers. "Under the
right conditions, globalisation can be a very positive force, providing the
political, economic and social context for sustained progress," said
Vice-Admiral Lowell Jacoby, director of the Pentagon's Defence Intelligence
Agency. "But in those areas unable to exploit these advantages, it can
leave large numbers of people seemingly worse off, exacerbate local and
regional tensions, increase the prospects and capabilities for conflict and
empower those who would do us harm."

George Tenet, CIA director, said that globalisation had been "a profoundly
disruptive force for governments to manage". Arab governments, in
particular, he said "are feeling many of globalisation's stresses,
especially on the cultural front, without reaping the economic benefits".

Tuesday's testimony presented the clearest picture yet of how US estimates
of security risks have changed since the September 11 attacks. In
particular, Mr Tenet said the US now faced "a new world of proliferation"
in which regimes such as North Korea and sophisticated non-state actors
could help a range of countries to develop nuclear weapons. On North Korea,
the intelligence agencies defied President George W. Bush's assessment,
calling the situation a crisis. Adm Jacoby said: "Pyongyang's open pursuit
of additional nuclear weapons is the most serious challenge to US regional
interests in a generation." Mr Tenet said the North Korean regime, in
pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, was seeking a different
relationship with Washington - "one that implicitly tolerates the North's
nuclear weapons programme". The ability of North Korea to deter the US by
acquiring nuclear weapons will "resonate deeply among other countries that
want to enter the nuclear club". "Demand creates the market. The desire for
nuclear weapons is on the upsurge," he added. Adm. Jacoby said there were
indications that North Korea "would be willing to market nuclear weapons in
the future".

The testimony also indicated that US intelligence agencies are far more
sensitive than Mr Bush to the potential for an anti-American backlash that
could hurt US interests.