Posted on 29-4-2004

Elections For Africa

Ten years after apartheid, political freedom faces new pressures
By Abraham McLaughlin | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA – As South Africa celebrates 10 years of
democracy Tuesday - with grand festivities and speeches by everyone from
Nelson Mandela to Tony Blair - it also marks the continent's progress on
the path toward political freedom. Forty-three of the 48 countries in
sub-Saharan Africa have held at least one multiparty election during the
past decade, compared with 1990, when just three were solidly democratic.

Yet outside pressures threaten to derail or even reverse this progress.
The geopolitical profile of Africa is rising as a key source of oil - it
will soon export more oil to the United States than Saudi Arabia - and as
a potential terrorism incubator. And some observers worry that the US, a
longtime backer of democracy here, may increasingly push for political
stability over democracy in order to protect oil outflows and prevent
terrorism.

There's a new focus on "securing oil platforms against attack - but little
concern about the democratic future of people who live near those
platforms," says Richard Cornwell, a senior analyst at the Institute for
Security Studies in Pretoria.

It's quite a shift from the years just after the cold war, when the
international community began to focus on "democracy and human rights" in
Africa, he says - for instance, when the UN and US sent troops to Somalia
on a humanitarian mission. Then, he says, "After 9/11, we went back to
hard definitions of security": strong states with robust police and
military forces.

Given this shift, South Africa, the continent's economic and political
powerhouse, may be key to shaping Africa's democratic future. Its
just-reelected president, Thabo Mbeki, is a champion of "good governance"
across Africa. Two initiatives he's pushing hard are the New Partnership
for African Development (NEPAD) and the African Union. Both reward good
government and democratic stand-outs - and punish slackers. "This begins
to shift the balance in inter-African politics toward better-governed
countries," says Francis Kornegay, a columnist for several South African
papers.

But within the continent, the influence of those focused on oil and
counterterrorism is growing. Consider Africa's 10 longest-serving leaders
- most of whom are undemocratic. Six of them preside over oil exports or
are partners in US antiterror effort.

Or take 10 of Africa's biggest oil exporters, including Nigeria, Angola,
Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea. Fully six of them were labeled "not free,"
the lowest category in an annual global survey by US-based Freedom House.
(See map at right.) Three of them are "partly free." Only the tiny island
of Sao Tome and Principe is "free." "If there's the faintest trade-off
between democratization and oil, oil will win," says Steven Friedman of
the Centre for Policy Studies here.

Or consider 10 major hot spots for US counterterrorism efforts, including
Somalia, Djibouti, Niger, Chad, and Kenya. Three of them are "not free."
Six are "partly free." One - Mali - is "free."