Posted on 31-10-2002
CIA
Disagrees With Bush
Agence France Presse, Tuesday, 29, October, 2002
The US Central Intelligence Agency has warned that US counterterrorist
operations around the world may not eliminate the threat of
future attacks
because they fail to address the root causes of terrorism, according
to new
documents.
In an unusual display of candor, the CIA pointed out that continued
instability in Afghanistan, challenges facing Saudi rulers and
the
festering Israeli-Palestinian conflict were likely to fuel radicalism
in
the Muslim world. The grim assessment was made in a series of
written
answers to questions posed by members of the US Congress last
April that
were released to the general public on Tuesday.
It is likely to reinforce the emerging view that the CIA may
have had a
falling out with some members of the administration of President
George W.
Bush on key foreign policy issues. Earlier this month, CIA Director
George
Tenet caused a stir here by predicting that, if cornered, Iraqi
President
Saddam Hussein was more likely to resort to weapons of destruction
-- the
very outcome a proposed US invasion of Iraq is meant to ward
off. But as
the administration continued to flesh out plans to use Iraqi
dissidents in
toppling the Baghdad government, the CIA cautioned in its answers
to
lawmakers that the Iraqi army remains "capable of defeating
more poorly
armed internal opposition groups."
As for hopes that members of the Iraqi elite will revolt against
Hussein as
soon as the United States launches an invasion, the agency pointed
out that
senior Iraqi officials "view their fortunes as tied to Saddam
and their
allegiance is probably bolstered by the regime's decade long
propaganda
campaign against UN sanctions and the West."
The CIA has been at the forefront of the war on terror launched
by Bush in
the wake of the September 11, 2001, attacks blamed on Osama
bin Laden and
his al-Qaeda network. But as it ferreted out terrorist cells,
the agency
appeared to sound a pessimistic note about the general direction
of the
effort. "While we are striking major blows against al-Qaeda
-- the
preeminent global terrorist threat, the underlying causes that
drive
terrorists will persist," the CIA said. "Several troublesome
global trends
-- especially the growing demographic youth bulge in developing
nations
whose economic systems and political ideologies are under enormous
stress
-- will fuel the rise of more disaffected groups willing to
use violence to
address their perceived grievances," it added.
More than 1,300 Islamic radicals suspected of association with
al-Qaeda
have been arrested in over 70 countries since the beginning
of the war on
terror, according to US officials. These successes notwithstanding,
the CIA
expressed doubt about the US ability to stabilize Afghanistan
and choke off
terrorist finances any time soon. It said the remnants of the
Taliban and
al-Qaeda were "well-placed to co-opt local or tribal leaders
and use them
to re-establish a base from which to challenge" the central
Afghan
government. As for the terrorists' financial base, CIA officials
warned it
was broader that previously described and concluded: "we will
never be able
to stop all terrorist money flows."
With violence raging in the Middle East, Bush is also pushing
for
leadership change in the Palestinian Authority, accusing its
leader, Yasser
Arafat, of failing the peaceful aspirations of his own people.
But
according to the CIA, Arafat's departure will have quite the
opposite
effect. It said a successor to Arafat "will have neither the
power base nor
the leadership qualities necessary to wield full authority."
"Challenged to
consolidate control and unable to match Arafat's ability to
unite
Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Diaspora, a new
leadership
would be more beholden to the sentiment of the Palestinian "street"
and
less likely to show moderation toward a Palestinian-Israeli
peace process,"
the CIA warned.
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