Posted on 31-10-2002

CIA Disagrees With Bush
Agence France Presse, Tuesday, 29, October, 2002

The US Central Intelligence Agency has warned that US counterterrorist
operations around the world may not eliminate the threat of future attacks
because they fail to address the root causes of terrorism, according to new
documents.

In an unusual display of candor, the CIA pointed out that continued
instability in Afghanistan, challenges facing Saudi rulers and the
festering Israeli-Palestinian conflict were likely to fuel radicalism in
the Muslim world. The grim assessment was made in a series of written
answers to questions posed by members of the US Congress last April that
were released to the general public on Tuesday.

It is likely to reinforce the emerging view that the CIA may have had a
falling out with some members of the administration of President George W.
Bush on key foreign policy issues. Earlier this month, CIA Director George
Tenet caused a stir here by predicting that, if cornered, Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein was more likely to resort to weapons of destruction -- the
very outcome a proposed US invasion of Iraq is meant to ward off. But as
the administration continued to flesh out plans to use Iraqi dissidents in
toppling the Baghdad government, the CIA cautioned in its answers to
lawmakers that the Iraqi army remains "capable of defeating more poorly
armed internal opposition groups."

As for hopes that members of the Iraqi elite will revolt against Hussein as
soon as the United States launches an invasion, the agency pointed out that
senior Iraqi officials "view their fortunes as tied to Saddam and their
allegiance is probably bolstered by the regime's decade long propaganda
campaign against UN sanctions and the West."

The CIA has been at the forefront of the war on terror launched by Bush in
the wake of the September 11, 2001, attacks blamed on Osama bin Laden and
his al-Qaeda network. But as it ferreted out terrorist cells, the agency
appeared to sound a pessimistic note about the general direction of the
effort. "While we are striking major blows against al-Qaeda -- the
preeminent global terrorist threat, the underlying causes that drive
terrorists will persist," the CIA said. "Several troublesome global trends
-- especially the growing demographic youth bulge in developing nations
whose economic systems and political ideologies are under enormous stress
-- will fuel the rise of more disaffected groups willing to use violence to
address their perceived grievances," it added.

More than 1,300 Islamic radicals suspected of association with al-Qaeda
have been arrested in over 70 countries since the beginning of the war on
terror, according to US officials. These successes notwithstanding, the CIA
expressed doubt about the US ability to stabilize Afghanistan and choke off
terrorist finances any time soon. It said the remnants of the Taliban and
al-Qaeda were "well-placed to co-opt local or tribal leaders and use them
to re-establish a base from which to challenge" the central Afghan
government. As for the terrorists' financial base, CIA officials warned it
was broader that previously described and concluded: "we will never be able
to stop all terrorist money flows."

With violence raging in the Middle East, Bush is also pushing for
leadership change in the Palestinian Authority, accusing its leader, Yasser
Arafat, of failing the peaceful aspirations of his own people. But
according to the CIA, Arafat's departure will have quite the opposite
effect. It said a successor to Arafat "will have neither the power base nor
the leadership qualities necessary to wield full authority." "Challenged to
consolidate control and unable to match Arafat's ability to unite
Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Diaspora, a new leadership
would be more beholden to the sentiment of the Palestinian "street" and
less likely to show moderation toward a Palestinian-Israeli peace process,"
the CIA warned.