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Posted on 19-8-2004
Chávez
Reconfirmed
Venezuelan Opposition Should Be Careful What They Wish For. By Todd
Tucker, August 16, 2004
Ryan Murphy, creator of television’s popular reality TV show Nip/Tuck, has
a theory based in Greek tragedy of why viewers tune in to see volunteers
request extreme plastic surgery and wind up hideously disfigured. "It's a
cautionary fairy tale. It says, 'Be careful what you wish for’,” he told
USA Today recently.1
This fable has relevance for Venezuela’s opposition, and not just because
of the country’s historic affinity for plastic surgery and beauty
pageants. After five years of extra-constitutional attempts to remove
President Hugo Chávez from power, the U.S.-supported Venezuelan opposition
finally got what it has asked for: a referendum on Chávez’s rule on
Sunday. But having attained their stated goal, it could be the worst thing
that has happened to them.
Initial announcements from the National Electoral Council (CNE) show that
Chávez won a resounding victory with 58.26% of voters (or 4,991,483)
reconfirming his electoral mandate, as against a meager 41.74% (or 3,576,
517) showing for the opposition. Ninety-four percent of the vote was
counted as of Monday morning, and by Monday afternoon the Carter Center
certified these results. Not only did the opposition not get a majority,
it did not even turn out the 3,757,773 minimum bar required by the
Constitution to trigger a recall (based on what Chávez received in the
last election). Chávez claimed a bigger share of the vote than that
predicted by most polls done before the referendum, which showed Chávez
beating the recall 50 to 38%.
The preliminary results also show that Chávez maintained roughly the share
of the vote he received in the 1998 and 2000 elections (56% and 59%,
respectively), while adding a total of 1,233,227 supporters. As Jimmy
Carter said on Sunday, “This is the largest turnout I have ever seen,”2
with polls staying open until midnight to process the 8,567,517 who turned
out. The previous record in Venezuelan history was the 1988 elections,
when 7,524,760 turned out.
The presumptive Chávez victory hinged largely on turning out his base of
poor voters, who have been the primary beneficiaries of his
administration’s social spending. Toward this end, nearly 2 million people
were registered to vote in recent months and over 4 million given new
national identity cards, which are required for voting. The government and
the national oil company PdVSA have also been using some of the proceeds
from high oil prices to launch massive literacy and health programs, which
have already benefited millions of people.
Polls also show that a majority of Venezuelans think that the Chávez
government represents the county very well internationally, and it is
possible that it benefited from the spillover effects of overwhelming
support from the rest of Latin America. The Brazilian governing Workers
Party (PT) endorsed Chávez in the referendum, as did the CUT union
federation and many prominent intellectuals and activists from across the
region.3 Recent months have also seen a flurry of movements toward deeper
regional integration, with Venezuela joining the Southern Cone trading
bloc Mercosur as an associate member, and oil sector and economic
cooperation agreements signed with Argentina, Caribbean countries, and
even Álvaro Uribe’s right-wing government in Colombia.4 Even Chilean
President Ricardo Lagos, whom Chávez had provoked by backing landlocked
Bolivia’s demand for sea access through Chilean territory,5 recently said
that “[The international community] must applaud him. The referendum is a
peaceful solution: it takes courage to go through with it, and Chávez
embodies courage.”6
The opposition is already busy using national and international media
outlets to try to discredit the outcome of the referendum. "We
categorically and absolutely reject these results," said Henry Ramos
Allup, leader of the Democratic Coordinator (CD) coalition of opposition
parties. "The National Elections Council has committed a gigantic fraud.”7
While it is possible that the final numbers will differ from these
preliminary numbers, they are unlikely to shift by enough to make a
substantive difference. In fact, Carter has already urged the opposition
to back down, saying, “Now it's the responsibility of all Venezuelans to
accept the results and work together for the future”8. Nonetheless, some
opposition leaders are calling for a full manual recount.9
This is in keeping with the opposition’s strategy for the last few months,
when they have denounced the electronic voting machines as
unreliable--although the Carter Center and opposition members of the CNE
have certified their accuracy--and claimed voter intimidation, although no
such systematic intimidation has been reported to Venezuelan authorities
or human rights groups.10 While Sunday’s voting was not without incidents
(at least one death was reported), it was minor compared with the
worst-case scenarios predicted by many analysts.
Some of the opposition’s own extreme rhetoric may have scared away some of
the swing votes. Former president and opposition leader Carlos Andrés
Pérez recently told the Venezuelan daily El Nacional that “Chávez should
die like a dog” and that violence “is the only option we have left” to
remove him from power. Perez added that a coup government would be needed
for several years before democracy could be reinstated.11 Venezuelans’
fears about violent opposition strategy were showing up in pre-election
polls as well, with 12% saying that the opposition itself is the most
serious problem facing the country, preceded only by crime and
unemployment. Chávez, by comparison, is not considered a serious problem
for the country; only 1% saw him as the country's most serious problem.
While there is still no official reaction from Washington, it is clear
that the Bush administration has quieted its rhetoric in the past few
weeks, perhaps in fear of a repeat of Bolivia in 2002, when State
Department condemnation of indigenous leader Evo Morales led to a surge in
his support among voters.12 In any case, Washington gave some indication
of its state of thinking when a senior administration official recently
told the Financial Times that, “The U.S. has put all of its eggs in the
referendum basket, hoping for a Chávez loss. Of course this is rather a
risky strategy, since if Chávez wins then we are pretty much stuck with
him since he will have been confirmed through a democratic process three
times.”13
Sticking with the democratic result would be counter to the
administration’s actions over the past few years, when the U.S. has
invested about $1 million a year into the Venezuelan opposition.14
According to documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, the
congressionally funded National Endowment for Democracy provided $53,400
to Súmate15, the organizer of the petition drive to oust Chávez, whose
leader Maria Corina Machado "signed-in" as a witness at the April 2002
coup government swearing-in ceremony that temporarily removed Chávez from
power--an act widely considered to represent endorsement of the coup.16
These documents also reveal that development of the opposition’s
alternative policy platform was partly financed by U.S. taxpayers, through
a NED grant to the Center for International Private Enterprise and the
Venezuelan Center for the Dissemination of Economic Information
(CEDICE).17 Notably, the head of CEDICE, Rocío Guijarro, signed the
Carmona Decree that dissolved the Venezuelan Supreme Court, Legislature,
and abolished the Constitution during the short-lived coup.18
At this point, opposition members have two choices: they can continue the
path of a negative agenda, united only in their hatred of Chávez; or they
can attempt to craft a positive electoral agenda for 2006 on the basis of
the better future that a majority of Venezuelans say they expect for the
remainder of Chávez’s term.
Chávez was the first to offer to respect the results of a referendum as
early as 2002.19 The opposition only committed to do this mere days before
the election20 At the time of this writing, it isn’t clear if they will
keep their promise. Chávez reached out to the opposition on Monday morning
with a pledge to unify the country.21 Will the opposition and Washington
support the same? As Chávez said in his reconfirmation speech, “Hopefully,
from this day on Washington will respect the government and people of
Venezuela.”22 That is something we can all wish for.
(Todd Tucker is a policy analyst with the Center for Economic and Policy
Research in Washington, DC, and writes frequently on trade, development,
and foreign policy issues affecting Latin America. For more information on
CEPR’s work, please visit www.cepr.net. He is also a contributor to the
1. “This season, it’s about more than face lifts.” By Ann Oldenburg .
USA Today. June 21, 2004.
2. “Venezuelan President claims victory in recall referendum.” By
Andrew Selsky. Associated Press. Aug. 16, 2004.
3. “Brazilian Artists and Intellectuals and Artists Declare Support for
Chávez.” Venezuelanalysis.com. July 20, 2004 .
4. “ Venezuela Joins Mercosur Trade Bloc” Associated Press. [Carried by
the New York Times]. July 8, 2004. “ Venezuela To Buy Argentine Oil
Tankers.” Dow Jones Newswires (Carried by the Wall Street Journal).
July 8, 2004. “Venezuela, Caribbean to Discuss Oil Deals.” The
Associated Press (Carried by the New York Times). July 14, 2004.
“Venezuela, Colombia Focus on Security” by Jorge Rueda. The Associated
Press, July 15, 2004
5. “Landlocked Bolivia eyes Chile's coast” by Kevin Hall. Miami Herald.
Jan. 23, 2004. “Landlocked Bolivia Wants Coastal Key From Chile ” by
Hector Tobar. Los Angeles Times . March 21, 2004.
6. “Lagos pide apoyo de Mercosur a referendum en Venezuela y elogia
coraje de Chávez.” Agence France Presse. July 8, 2004.
7. “Chavez Appears to Survive Referendum; Opposition Charges Government
Committed Fraud.” By Mary Beth Sheridan. The Washington Post. Aug. 16,
2004.
8. “Carter Endorses Chavez Win in Venezuela.” By Andrew Selsky.
Associated Press. Aug. 16, 2004.
9. “ Oposición: El CNE ejecutó una estafa.” El Nacional. Aug. 16, 2004.
10. “Chavistas y opositores debaten en la radio de Miami," Casto Ocando,
El Nuevo Herald. July 30, 2004.
11. "Carlos Andres Perez insiste en sacar al presidente Chávez por la
via violenta," Agence France Presse. July 25, 2004.
12. “U.S.-backed nominee named president.” The Chicago Tribune. Aug. 5,
2002.
13. “US softens its stance on Venezuela in belief Chavez will hang on to
power.” By Andy Webb-Vidal. Financial Times. Aug. 6, 2004.
14. “Chávez Camp Accuses US of pushing for his recall.” By Ken
Silverstein and Carol J. Williams. The Los Angeles Times. Aug. 13, 2004.
15. NED Grant Agreement No. 2003-548.0, September 12, 2003. Available at
16. Jorge A. Pabón, “Los Carmona firmantes” (the Carmona signers),
Quinto Día, October 31 -November 7, 2003.
Pabon’s list of “Carmona signers” included Machado. Quinto Día is an
independent commercial weekly newspaper.
17. NED Grant 2002-021, 2/1/02 – 9/30/03, CIPE Quarterly Report, April,
May, June 2003.
18. Proceedings of the Special Parliamentary Commission to Investigate
the Events of April 11-14, 2002, National Assembly of the Bolivarian
Republic of Venezuela, May 2, 2002. CEDICE “Consensus Building a
National Agenda,” Grant Agreement 0102522-000-00, 3 rd Quarter report,
March- May 31, 2003.
19. “ Chavez acepta ir a referendo seis meses antes.” By Fabiola
Sanchez. El Nuevo Herald. June 18, 2002.
20. “Oposición acatará resultado de referendo si es avalado por
observadores.” Agence France Presse. Aug. 11, 2004.
21. “ Chávez: "Comenzó una nueva etapa de avance y reconciliación
profunda." El Nacional. Aug. 16, 2004 .
22. “Chavez Appears to Survive Referendum; Opposition Charges Government
Committed Fraud.” By Mary Beth Sheridan. The Washington Post. Aug. 16,
2004.
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