Posted on 24-8-2002

War Blair Can't Win

Tony Blair's massive Commons majority could crumble if he defies public
opinion and joins a US invasion of Iraq, his chief pollster has warned him.
Philip Gould, one of the Prime Minister's most trusted advisors, has told
him he must show voters more respect amid claims he is making Britain
dubblya's poodle. Veteran Left-winger Tony Benn has also warned an attack
could see the PM out of a job. "The Prime Minister should make it clear now
that Britain will give no support to such a war. "Like Suez, it could cost
him his job. If he goes along with this war he puts his own position at risk."

The facts are, since the Desert Storm I the world has seen massive
opposition to the transnational corporate plan for globalisation and within
the last month everyone who can read or has a television knows that the
coporate warriors have lost their mana of invincibility and public trust.
Now there is an economic downturn and borrowing money to finance a sequel
doesn't look so good an option for state treasury bureaucrats. The world
has turned against the spin masters who made the world safe for TNCs and
the governments who ride with them.

In talks at No 10, Gould advised Blair that bypassing Parliament and
forging ahead with a Gulf War-style conflict against Saddam Hussein would
be electoral suicide. His warnings are thought to have helped Blair's
decision to rethink his policy of backing America unconditionally. Setting
out his fears before his Downing Street meeting, Gould has been influenced
by the impact of anti-globalisation corporate style, and wrote: "It is no
longer possible for politicians to look at the world and seek simply to
control it. "Top-down, controlling, one-way models of leadership are doomed
in this new world. "Any politician in any democracy who fails to respect
and honour the new assertiveness of the electorate will fail at the ballot
box and fail to achieve change."

King Abdullah of Jordan revealed that Blair had privately admitted to him
on Monday that he was worried about invading Iraq. And the Prime Minister's
new-found caution has intensified amid claims that Gordon Brown is balking
at the cost of a potential war. British taxpayers face a £2billion bill if
UK troops join an American offensive and the Chancellor fears that debt
could even harm the economy in this new period of economic downturn. The
intervention of the new Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams is also
believed to have had an impact on Blair. The Church of England leader
spearheaded the moral argument against attacking Iraq in private talks with
the Premier. His views are thought to have pricked the Prime Minister's
Christian conscience.

But it is Gould's focus group findings which will cause most disquiet to
Blair. Cabinet Ministers have bluntly told the UK PM that full party talks
- and a Commons debate - must be staged before any strike. Gould, who has
been one of the PM's key strategists since 1994, is also believed to have
told him that public opposition to an attack has hardened since he flagged
up the prospect of war in March. Advisors at No 10 now believe it was a
mistake to hype the possibility of action so long before the event. "With
Desert Fox in 1998, Britain was hitting Baghdad before the public knew what
was happening. There was no time for opposition to build up and the public
were broadly in favour of the attacks. "But by announcing the intention to
strike so long before any invasion, those arguing against war have been
handed an open goal."

It is also being spread around (not that it worried Blair when in the
ascendent) that Blair was this week advised that any action would be
illegal without backing from the UN. Mr Benn said: "An American war against
Iraq would be a breach of the charter of the UN and an act of aggression.
"It would set the Middle East aflame and have tragic consequences for tens
of thousands of innocent people in Iraq." Benn added: "The Daily Mirror's
poll is very telling. When 91 per cent of the public opposes a war against
Iraq, it is extremely important and the Government should take note."

Could be that sending 25,000 British troops against Saddam would cost UK
taxpayers up to five times more than the Gulf War. Former Defence Minister
Labour Peter Kilfoyle added: "It is far more likely that the British and
American taxpayers will be picking up the bill for this war than the oil
sheikhs who paid for the Gulf War." Labour MP Bruce George, of the Commons'
Defence committee, said the Government must produce evidence of Saddam's
weapons arsenal otherwise voters would not be persuaded that might was
right. A National Audit Office study, which revealed huge failures in
troops' equipment, had cast doubts on Britain's ability to fight another
desert conflict.

And, not to be forgotten, anything lead by Dubblya is always going to have
a high probability of ignominious failure. But then again, that's something
the UK and USA have gotten pretty used to over the years.