Posted on 25-3-2004

Arabs See U.S. Green Light For Israel Bombing
Tue Mar 23, 2004, by Howard LaFranchi, Christian Science Monitor

The "wink" the United States has given Israel in the wake of its
assassination of the spiritual leader of Hamas, or the Islamic Resistance
Movement, exemplifies once again how successful Israel has been at
aligning its fight against militant Palestinians with the U.S. war on
terror.

At the same time, the apparent tacit U.S. approval--which contrasts with
the swift condemnation of the killing by other countries--suggests why the
road ahead in the Middle East remains so arduous for the U.S.

What looks to Arabs in the region like a U.S. "green light" to Israel also
raises the prospect that the US, or at least American interests in the
region, will become a target of militant Palestinian reprisal. "The
Zionists didn't carry out their operation without getting the consent of
the terrorist American administration, and it must take responsibility for
this crime," Hamas reportedly said in a statement Monday.

That may not portend attacks in the U.S., experts on the region say, but
it does suggest how the deteriorating Israeli-Palestinian situation may
have growing impact on the U.S.-led war on terror. "Hamas is not about to
shift the focus of its actions to the U.S., although Americans in the
vicinity could be targeted as we've seen in the past," says William
Quandt, a Middle East expert at the University of Virginia and a former
National Security Council official. "But with less centralized control
over the militants as the leadership is affected, we could see something
emerge more like Al Qaeda, with a proliferation of more or less affiliated
groups that add this kind of [assassination] to their list of grievances
against the U.S.."

As for whether the U.S. had probably received advance notification of
Israel's act, Mr. Quandt says, "There isn't any need to be consulted. The
U.S. is in a position of having opened the door without having
specifically given the green light, and [Israeli Prime Minister Ariel]
Sharon has become very adept at telling the U.S., 'We're doing exactly
what you are doing' " in fighting terror.

National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice (news - web sites) said Monday
that there had been no discussion between President Bush (news - web
sites) and Mr. Sharon about the plan, which resulted in an Israeli
helicopter gunship killing Sheikh Ahmed Yassin as he left dawn prayers.

But in an appearance on NBC's "Today" show, Dr. Rice added, "Let's
remember that Hamas is a terrorist organization and that Sheikh Yassin has
himself, personally we believe, been involved in terrorist planning."

The killing--which the Israeli government had openly said would be pursued
after an earlier attempt on the sheikh's life failed last September--was
strongly denounced by European foreign ministers meeting Monday in
Brussels. The assassination "is unacceptable," said British Foreign
Secretary Jack Straw. "It is unjustified, and it is very unlikely to
achieve its objectives."

That difference in response is an example of why the U.S., despite its
goal of championing reform and development in the Middle East, remains in
such low esteem and is so mistrusted among Arabs. The U.S. is seen as so
unequivocally on Israel's side in the Arab-Israeli conflict--and even more
so in an election year--that acts such as the Yassin killing only
reconfirm perceptions the U.S. is no longer the "honest broker" it once
was in the region.

Yet negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were going nowhere,
with or without America's good auspices, some experts believe. They say
the two sides have become stuck in a syndrome of attack and reprisal that
leaves little hope for progress in the near term. "The situation is going
to be worse for a while, as the pattern of revenge attacks we've seen in
the past is carried out following this [Yassin killing], and it will stay
that way as long as the Palestinians stick to this phase of trying to
advance through acts of terrorism," says James Phillips, a Middle East
specialist at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

Others say Hamas's vow for revenge highlights the need for the US to
remain focused on the forces of terrorism that have proved to be its
central enemies. "This only underscores the paramount importance of the US
focusing its terrorism efforts on Al Qaeda and not conflating the threat
to include other terrorist groups--such as Hamas--who do not attack the
United States," says Charles Pea, director of defense policy studies at
the Cato Institute in Washington. "This in no way justifies Hamas's or any
other anti-Israeli terrorism, but simply recognizes that the U.S. cannot
afford to make other countries' terrorist threats our terrorist threat."

Despite Hamas's warnings, Mr. Phillips says he does not expect to see the
group carry out specific attacks against the U.S. "I think they understand
they would be worse off because of it," he says, explaining that "they
would risk losing those European and other friends" who see Hamas in terms
of a nationalist struggle.

Virginia's Quandt notes that the assassination was carried out with
U.S.-supplied military hardware - equipment over whose use the U.S. by law
retains some measure of control. "If we had objections as to how it's
being used, the administration should have informed Congress of that," he
says. The lack of any such objections tells Sharon his equating of the
Palestinian conflict with the broader US-led war on terror is a winning
strategy, he says.

In this context, few observers expect much progress on what the Bush
administration says are its broader goals for the region. "Conditions
weren't ripe for anything going forward even before this [killing]," says
Phillips. "So I think now the [American] strategy is to try to encourage
some positive democratic reforms and economic advances elsewhere in the
region that might nudge the Palestinians back to discussions and
renouncing terrorism."