Posted
27th July 2001
Indonesia Karmic Wheel Spins
Indonesia's first leader, President Sukarno, was ousted from
office 5 years ago by right-wing army generals. On Monday, Sukarno's
daughter rose to the presidency on a wave of support from the
military brass - still this nation's kingmakers. Several other
groups that were part of the corruption-ridden, 32-year dictatorship
of former President Suharto - the five-star general who brought
down Sukarno in 1966 - also backed Megawati. These include Indonesia's
powerful business elite, the state bureaucracy and the judiciary.
"This is very bad news for Indonesia's democratic reforms and
for the concept of civilian supremacy over the military," said
John Roosa, a historian specializing in Southeast Asia.
The army's support for Megawati in the political struggle to
replace Wahid - strikingly demonstrated when they deployed nearly
100 tanks around the presidential palace Sunday - may enable
them to regain the pre-eminent position they held during the
dictatorship. This isn't the hopeful vision of a new Indonesia
that emerged when Suharto fell. In the heady days of June 1999,
after huge pro-democracy protests and riots forced Suharto from
office, "Reformasi," - Reforms - became the rallying cry for
Indonesians ecstatic with their new democratic experiment. The
military, seen as Indonesia's most corrupt institution and accused
of bloody human rights abuses in East Timor and elsewhere, appeared
on the verge of losing legitimacy. Megawati was in the forefront
of the reform movement. Her family pedigree and the fact that
Suharto's thugs attacked her party's headquarters in 1996 to
remove her as its leader made her a hero and natural candidate
for president. Her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle won
the largest share of votes - mainly from poor and working class
voters - in democratic elections in 1999, but failed to achieve
a clear majority.
Inexplicably,
Megawati demonstrated no interest in the electoral college which
picks Indonesia's presidents. Her passivity allowed a coalition
of other groups, many of them holdovers from the Suharto regime,
to sideline her and elect Wahid in October 1999. The moderate
Muslim cleric wasn't expected to deliver significant reforms.
But once he became head of state, Wahid angered his backers
by moving tentatively to eliminate the corruption that marked
Suharto's regime. The government prosecuted several of Suharto's
wealthiest cronies and even attempted to bring charges against
the aging dictator himself. Wahid also tried - but eventually
backed off - to replace the military brass with reformist generals
advocating civilian control over the armed forces.
In April last year, the only human rights trial of soldiers
in Indonesian history ended in 24 convictions for the massacre
of dozens of students at a religious school in Aceh. Although
most of Wahid's initiatives fizzled, they earned him the loathing
of the military and business oligarchies, which gradually switched
their support to Megawati. In the meantime, the vice president
had done little to formulate a cohesive political platform.
Her rare public speeches were full of nationalist exhortations
and nursery rhymes but short on substance. She had nothing to
do with the running of the government and quietly evaded Wahid's
request to mediate in peace talks between warring Christians
and Muslims in the Maluku islands. "This is somebody who would
normally be considered completely incompetent to be a politician,"
said Roosa, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of California
at Berkley. Megawati is widely seen as lacking intellectual
ability and being heavily influenced by her millionaire husband,
Taufik Kiemas, and a coterie of advisers. Kiemas has established
an armed party militia commanded by Eurico Guterres, a notorious
army-backed paramilitary leader from East Timor wanted by the
U.N. on charges of war crimes.
Megawati's advisers include Arifin Panigoro, an oil baron and
former Suharto crony, who as her party's parliamentary chief
has worked hard to forge a coalition with the generals and tycoons.
"She thinks it is her birthright to be president and will enjoy
the glory associated with it, but others will be running things
for her," predicted George Aditjondro, a University of Newcastle
professor and a leading expert on corruption in Indonesia.
Aditjondro
said Megawati will be a mere figurehead for the military and
the oligarchies that benefitted from association with Suharto.
"I foresee a pessimistic future. We'll probably see a rotation
of short-term presidents, while the military makes sure that
there are no serious trials for corruption or human rights abuses.". ...
.
|