The Real-Politic Of Greenhouse Effect

Posted 5th Msrch 2001
By Danielle Knight

WASHINGTON, Mar 5 (IPS) - Advances in renewable and energy- efficient technology combined with the willingness of governments to experiment with new economic approaches to energy markets, can significantly cut greenhouse emissions at little cost, according to a new analysis released Monday by an international panel of hundreds of scientists. The 800-page report, released in Accra, Ghana during an international meeting on how to mitigate global warming, says that efforts to stem heat- trapping greenhouse gas emissions caused by the burning of oil, gas and coal can result in additional benefits including less air pollution, forest conservation and energy security. The report is the third in a series of three large documents by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and represents almost three years of work by about 400 governmental and non-government experts. While the report stresses that there is no single path to reducing emissions, the panel says that if currently available technological innovations in renewable energy and energy efficiency are promoted by governments, carbon dioxide emissions could be significantly reduced within the next 100 years. Significant technological advances in renewable energy, such as wind turbines and fuel efficient hybrid engine cars, have progressed faster than anticipated, it says. In various mitigation scenarios studied by the panel, no single technology option provides all of the emissions reductions needed. A combination of market incentives and technologies is the most effective, says the summary.

According to another report released in Accra last week by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), geothermal, small-scale hydro-power, solar, biomass, and wind technologies have grown proportionally faster than any other electricity supply technology. The wind energy industry, for example, has grown in just two decades from a producer of small machines to a modern, multi-billion dollar industry supplying bulk, grid-connected power, says Klaus Toepfer, executive director of UNEP. Since the 1990s the cost of wind generated electricity has dropped seven-fold, which makes wind power competitive with most fossil fuel technologies, he says. ''It is increasingly true,'' says Toepfer, ''that there are no technical, financial or economic reasons why the nations of the world cannot enjoy the benefits of a high level of energy services and a better environment. ''It is simply a question of making the right choices,'' he says. One of the right choices, according to the report by the scientific panel, is to remove government subsidies for fossil fuels and instead devote them to renewable energy and energy efficiency. The report also says the use of various market mechanisms, such as emission trading permits, could reduce the net economic cost of meeting emissions reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. The international treaty, named after the Japanese city where it was drawn up in 1997, requires industrialised nations to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 to five percent below 1990 levels. While more than 100 countries have signed the agreement, not one industrialised nation has ratified the treaty. The report says the most effective way a country could meet its treaty obligations would be to develop several policy instruments, including tradable or non-tradable emission permits, energy mix requirements, energy efficiency standards, support for research and development, and the redirection of energy subsidies. ''Market-based instruments may be cost effective in many cases, especially where capacity to administer them is developed,'' says the report summary. The report also says the transfer of technologies between countries and regions will ''widen the choice of options at the regional level and economies of scale and learning will lower the costs of their adoption''. Preserving forests, which store carbon dioxide, is another way governments can mitigate global warming, says the report.

Promoting agricultural practices that emit less carbon from the soil, such as no-till farming, is also a method policy makers can utilise to foster reductions in greenhouse gases, it says. The report says some government proposals to implement a carbon tax can have negative income effects on low-income groups ''unless the tax revenues are used directly or indirectly to compensate such effect''. Some mitigation actions may yield extensive benefits in areas outside of climate change, says the panel's report. ''For example, they may reduce health problems; increase employment; reduce negative environmental impacts (like air pollution); protect and enhance forests, soils and watersheds; reduce those subsidies and taxes which enhance greenhouse gas emissions; and induce technological change ... contributing to wide goals of sustainable development,'' says the summary. The first report by the scientific panel, issued in January, concluded that carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases is causing the gradual rise of the Earth's air surface temperature. The panel predicted that the average surface air temperature of the planet will rise 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 relative to 1990. Average sea level, worldwide is projected by models to rise 0.09 to 0.88 metres by 2100. The panel's second report warned that global warming is already seriously impacting ecosystems worldwide and will further widen the gap between industrialised nations and poor developing countries which are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events. Observational evidence indicates, said the panel, that regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature, are currently causing glaciers to shrink, permafrost to thaw and wildlife behaviour to change.