Microsoft Macroproblem
posted 11th June 2000
by Alan Marston

The US judge in the Microsoft monopoly case has called for a breakup of MS into a seller of operating systems and a separate seller of applications. What does this mean for me and others like me in New Zealand? On the one hand.. You had it coming Bill. Our ego responds immediately to the sight of another massive ego not getting things all its own way, with a bit of a gloat. Pretty quickly though fears start to creep in. Subjective responses are pretty fleating, but have a punishing affect on perception (and hence consumer reality) while they last - which they don't. On the other hand.. The ego detects more of the one thing it has come to fear most, uncontrollable change at an ever increasing rate.

How much more change can a person take? Is this the last straw? When the big start to topple, the small need to run for cover? Objective consciousness is what really counts in the world of commerce, but it takes a while to kick in, don't be the last to be wise. A moments reflection tells us that by the time the US Appeal Courts have been gone through and the Supreme Court hands down a final opinion, industry and commerce will have changed so much that MS will be comparatively irrelevant. The issue is not what happens to Bill Gates, its what happens to me! One has to get past the focus on the big players to attain personal wisdom. My observations lead me to suggest considering the issues below if one is focussed on the personal implications of MS troubles.

1. MS is already being constrained and so changes have been happening and will continue, despite the machinations of lawyers. Unless Microsoft can get another judge to get in the way, some injunctions are already hurting the US bully-boy of the PC industry. They tell Microsoft how to behave in the months ahead while the case is on appeal. It can't threaten or do anything to harm competing products, such as withholding licensing terms, sales or technical support. It can't force computer makers to take other Microsoft products as a condition of licensing Windows. It can't force manufacturers to agree to promote, distribute or use Microsoft products. It must provide the same licensing terms to all manufacturers. All this could affect you, as computer makers are freed to put whatever software they want on the desktop without fear of reprisal from Redmond. It will also embolden more software developers to make products that compete with Microsoft. How well injunctions can be enforced is another, question. But all the same, things are going to free-up and really, that has to be seen as a good thing for you and me. PlaNet has used and promoted Linux since 93, we have the alternative... and it works. The future is not visible through Windows2000.

2. Microsoft's share price is likely to rebound. The uncertainty is over and investors can focus again on the company's solid fundamentals and continuing profits. But the ruling will put a ceiling on the stock price. No longer does the company appear to have an unbounded future. That ceiling won't come off until the final ruling from the Supreme Court. That ceiling could have a dramatic effect on company morale. Can MS cope with its own subjective factor? Probably not, bullys are notorious for turning into whimps when confronted with serious competitors for big boy on the block. MS is not going to be a good basket in which to put all your eggs. Start looking for alternatives to MS now. MS executives and workers are.

3. There are already at least 100 lawsuits against Microsoft and there will be more. Blood is in the water, the sharks are attracted from miles around. The latest ruling will give competitors the second-hand courage to challenge Microsoft, can it cope? Yes, but don't rely on it, hedge your bets and spread your applications sources. Empower yourself with knowledge of your options. Nothing new here. Don't panic. If you have totally relied on MS operating systems and applications, that was never a good thing. Its not too late to start introducing alternative systems and apps - but don't go to the other extreme and eliminate Windows and/or NT. Be wise, compromise.