Posted on 1-5-2003
Cold
War 21
by Alan Marston
The influence of the USA in the so-called global economy has
been one of leadership based on raw economic power. As that
economic power weakens, which it is, so the business and soon
after that the political power goes too. We are now witness
to the loss of leadership and influence that the USA exerts
and the first signs of that are appearing in the most sensitive
of all international relations, trade.
Anti-American sentiment in wake of the war in Iraq, fused with
the harsh winds of strained international relations and a weakening
US economy, are hurting the always ambitious global-trade agenda,
written and promoted within the context of a now long-gone `Washington
Consensus'. New Zealand's economy, based as it is on a large
trade sector and a recent history of getting rid of trade-barriers
will find itself the vulnerable weakling on the bloc if NZ politicians
don't respond quickly, re-establishing protective trade rules
for domestic business. New Zealand's right will almost inevitably
take the side of whoever is on top in Washington, which happens
to be the neo-conservatives at the moment. The muddy waters
of liberalism are clearing, the lines sharpening. Right wing
will be those for Washington and left wing those against.
Hot wars are followed by cold wars, a euphemism for the use
of politics and trade as weapons rather than as instruments
of mutual gain. The cold political and economic weather front
is looming large, it would be stupid to ignore it. Look at the
evidence for an approaching depression.
Washington has signaled its displeasure with Chile's antiwar
stance by delaying the planned April signing ceremony of a U.S.-Chile
trade agreement. The Brazilian press is reporting that diplomats
expect the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas to miss
its 2005 deadline, perhaps for years, even as Miami's trade
community is gearing up to host a regional trade ministers meeting
in November. And difficult negotiations for a round of multilateral
trade and investment liberalization have been buffeted by new
waves of transatlantic discord, throwing into question the success
of a World Trade Organization summit scheduled for September.
Even the bright spots have clouds. U.S. trade officials say
negotiations for a Central American Free Trade Agreement is
on target to be wrapped up by the end of the year, but, two
weeks ago, trade negotiators meeting in San Salvador were greeted
by protesters shredding the American flag and waving Iraqi and
Salvadoran banners. And on top of the political issues is the
threat of SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, which has
grounded U.S. executives, accustomed to frequent flying to southern
China to inspect products coming off America's newest factory
floors there. But, even without SARS, the U.S. war on terrorism
and the growing distance with key European allies have combined
to undermine global-trade talks, analysts say. "My view
is that the Western security alliance is broken," said
Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the International Institute
for Economics. "It may be papered over but not fixed. All
the economic institutions grew up under this umbrella of common
security concerns. Now these economic-cooperation institutions
have to stand on their own."
Helen Clark, PM of New Zealand is currently in Europe. My impression
is that she has seen Tony Blair as a latter day Chamberlain,
appeasement is the order of the day in the UK in respect of
a rogue USA, and Clark doesn't buy that, which I think makes
sense when sitting on the fence is no longer an option. The
new cold war global economy was unequivocally declared by the
USA in its `for us or against us line', so Clark is against,
and in Europe building relations with the much more powerful
against side, Europe minus the UK.
New Zealand is in the `against Washington camp, lets have no
doubts about that. The next election in NZ will be based on
that, those for the USA will find themselves classified as right
and will therefore vote right and those against, left. Will
the Labour Party be left, we'll see.
Meantime, forget `free trade'. It was the first casualty of
the new cold war. Most New Zealanders need a government that
will defend us, economically, where the real war is and always
was. As trade ministers from the 146 member nations of the WTO
are slated to gather in Cancun, Mexico, in September to showcase
advances on brokering rules to liberalize trade and investment,
a series of negotiations known as the Doha round is still going
on. NZ should dumpt Doha, its history. Some of the big decisions
were supposed to be behind the Doha group, but WTO members have
missed four negotiating deadlines on issues including agricultural
negotiations, trade-related aspects of intellectual-property
rights and the promised access for poor countries to inexpensive
medicines like AIDS drugs, implementation issues and special
treatment for developing countries.
Washington will continue to draw fors away from the against
camp, starting at the top with Paris. To the extent they achieve
that, NZ must move its trade regulations to defend itself in
a tactical battle where no country can be 100% relied on.
In economic war New Zealanders need political leadership that
doesn't shirk from defense of that which we define as our livelihood,
trade.
|