Posted on 29-8-2002
Beyond
Bush's Unilateralism
by Hazel Henderson, June 2002, www.hazelhenderson.com
Another Bi-Polar World or A New Era of Win-Win?"
In my Building a Win-Win World (1996) I sketched a chilling
future scenario
of a new bi-polar world: The USA vs. Other Member Countries
of the UN. The
USA had finally pulled out of the UN, whose headquarters had
left New York
for Europe.
Today we see the post-cold war hegemony of the USA as a unilateralist
single superpower and George W. Bush's global, open-ended declaration
of
"war on terrorism and evil." After 9/11, Bush stampeded the
US public and
media into supporting him by offering no alternatives. In my
9/15
editorial, "Mr. Bush's Win-Win Option" I called for Bush to
pay the US back
dues owed the UN; to designate the terrorist attacks as criminal
genocide,
and seek UN cooperation in bringing the perpetrators before
the World Court
in The Hague.
Meanwhile the Bush administration's unilateralism has shifted
into even
higher gear. After the unprecedented US "un-signing" of the
International
Criminal Court (ICC), the US is now seeking UN Security Council
action to
exempt the USA from ICC jurisdiction. Bush continues to abrogate
treaties,
including those on chemical and biological weapons, as well
as the ABM
Treaty so as to continue developing "Star Wars II" missile defense.
Bush
has targeted UN top officials including Mary Robinson, UN High
Commissioner
for Human Rights, Robert Watson as Head of the Inter-government
Panel on
Climate Change and Jose Bustani who headed the Organization
for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Meanwhile, Sen. Jesse Helms
is reviving
his efforts to prevent further payment on the over $500 million
of back US
dues still owed to the UN, and right-winger John Bolton of the
US State
Dept. is even targeting Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
Bush's dangerous "global war" cannot be checked by US voters,
since
democratic machinery has been pre-empted by moneyed corporations
and
powerful financial interests, compliant commercial mass media,
pollsters,
lobbyists, etc. The two major US political parties are both
captives (the
Republicans of earlier industrial, fossil-fuel sectors; the
Democrats of
later-stage sectors: telecoms, biotech, computers, media, Hollywood,
etc.).
Over 40% of the US public is independent - yet the rules are
stacked
against third parties.
The United Nations is one of the pre-eminent social innovations
of the 20th
Century and must form the basis of a reformed multi-lateral
system. My
recommendations for reforming current international institutions,
revitalizing the UN and expanding civic society are summarized
in Beyond
Globalization (1999). A more balanced world order must center
on reforming
global finance, taxing currency exchange and reducing the US
dollar's
unsustainable role as the world's de facto reserve currency
(which is
destructive for all countries -- even the US itself). I favor
a global
reserve currency regime based on the parity of the US dollar
and the euro.
The fundamentals in the USA and the EU suggest that the G-8
has an
opportunity to peg the dollar and the euro into a trading band.
This,
together with the new issue of SDRs, proposed by all the IMF
country
members, promoted by George Soros and opposed only by the USA,
would lend
to more stable currency markets.
Presently, even though the EU and China have the economic clout
to
challenge US unilateralism -- so far, neither has attempted
to check Bush.
Latin America is still divided in spite of Venezuela's Hugo
Chavez
herculean efforts to encourage greater integration and policy
coordination
and his leadership of the G-77. Latin American countries stood
by Chavez
and Venezuelan democracy in the face of the right wing military
coup (which
the Bush Administration approved and may have assisted). Yet,
the USA
continues to exhibit many vulnerabilities since 9/11: to suicidal
terrorist
attacks (due to its Middle East policies) to its dependency
on imported
oil; new revelations about Wall Street since Enron, accounting
scandals;
widespread corporate over-stating of profits and eroded trust
in US capital
markets - added to the bursting of the "dot com" and "New Economy"
stock
bubbles and the declining dollar.
The most likely end to US hegemony may come about through a
combination of
high oil prices (brought about by US foreign policies toward
the Middle
East) and deeper devaluation of the US dollar (expected by many
economists). Some elements of this scenario:
* US global over-reach in the "war on terrorism" already leading
to
deficits as far as the eye can see -- combined with historically-high
US
trade deficits - lead to a further run on the dollar. This and
the stock
market doldrums make the US less attractive to the world's capital.
* More developing countries follow the lead of Venezuela and
China in
diversifying their currency reserves away from dollars and balanced
with
euros. Such a shift in dollar-euro holdings in Latin America
and Asia
could keep the dollar and euro close to parity.
* OPEC could act on some of its internal discussions and decide
(after
concerted buying of euros in the open market) to announce at
a future
meeting in Vienna that OPEC's oil will be re-denominated in
euros, or even
a new oil-backed currency of their own. A US attack on Iraq
sends oil to
EUR40 per barrel.
* The Bush Administration's efforts to control the domestic
political
agenda backfires. Damage over the intelligence failures prior
to 9/11 and
warnings of imminent new terrorist attacks precipitate a further
stock
market slide.
* All efforts by Democrats and the 57% of the US public to shift
energy
policy toward renewables, efficiency, standards, higher gas
taxes, etc. are
blocked by the Bush Administration and its fossil fuel industry
supporters.
Thus, the USA remains vulnerable to energy supply and price
shocks.
* The EU recognizes its own economic and political power as
the euro rises
further and becomes the world's other reserve currency. The
G-8 pegs the
euro and dollar into a trading band -- removing these two powerful
currencies from speculators trading screens (a "win-win" for
everyone!).
Tony Blair persuades Brits of this larger reason for the UK
to join the euro.
* Developing countries lacking dollars or "hard" currencies
follow
Venezuela's lead and begin bartering their undervalued commodities
directly
with each other in computerized swaps and counter trade deals.
President
Chavez has inked 13 such country barter deals on its oil, e.g.,
with Cuba
in exchange for Cuban health paramedics who are setting up clinics
in rural
Venezuelan villages.
The result of this scenario? The USA could no longer run its
huge current
account trade deficits or continue to wage open-ended global
war on
terrorism or evil. The USA ceases pursuing unilateralist policies.
A new
US administration begins to return to its multilateralist tradition,
ceases
its obstruction and rejoins the UN and pursues more realistic
international
cooperation.
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