Posted on 5-11-2003

Apres Le Peak

We, the members of the educational and scientific communities involved in
the study of the worldwide peak of oil production, offer the following
statement on the problem and its implications for our future.

Oil is a finite resource. A growing majority of the world's leading
petroleum geologists now agree that more than 95 percent of the world's
recoverable oil has been discovered. We therefore know, to a reasonable
degree of certainty, the total amount of oil that was endowed at the
beginning of the oil age.

As of this statement, mankind has consumed approximately half of the
original endowment. We continue to consume this finite resource at a rate
of about 75 million barrels per day - more than four times the rate at
which we are finding new reserves. This is not a new situation: every year
since 1981 we have found less oil than we use, and the difference between
what is being discovered and what is being consumed is growing. The
situation is now becoming critical and acute.

Oil is our most important energy source. Oil is the fuel that enabled the
growth of modern civilization, and all industrialized countries now rely
on oil to an extraordinary extent. It provides 40 percent of our primary
energy, and oil's physical and chemical versatility and its energy density
are such that no other known energy source can serve as a full or even
adequate substitute. Oil is critical to our transportation infrastructure,
and it is the essence of industrial agriculture. It is equally integral to
the chemical & pharmaceutical industries, much of the clothing industry,
and a vast array of others. In short, oil is the oxygen of the industrial
world. Worldwide oil production is peaking. After more than fifty years of
research and analysis on the subject, it is now clear that the rate at
which world oil producers can extract oil has reached, or is extremely
close to reaching, the maximum level possible.

This is what is meant by 'oil peak'. With great effort and expenditure,
the current level of oil production can possibly be maintained for a few
more years, but beyond that oil production must begin an irrevocable
decline. This decline is a certainty, guaranteed by the natural laws that
govern our physical world, and nothing in science, technology or
engineering can prevent it. The consumption of a finite resource is simply
a finite endeavor. Attempts to delay the onset of this decline only ensure
a steeper, more uncontrollable decline. Oil peak is a powerful force of
global destabilization. The destabilizing effects of oil peak reach deep
into our economic systems, our environment, and our geopolitics. The
inexorable tightening of supply has already destabilized oil markets,
creating extreme price responses to the smallest of disturbances. Higher
oil prices create economic hardship by increasing the cost of consumer
goods while reducing spendable income.

Efforts to shore up weakened economies through relaxed environmental
regulations, increased drilling in sensitive wildlife areas, or shifts to
coal and nuclear technologies, pose serious threats to our environment and
our climate. In the past, countries of the Middle East have increased
production to relieve tight markets, but with more than 50 oil- producing
countries now in decline and the Middle East nearing its own peak, any
relief at this point will be limited and temporary. The current military
action in Iraq could result in the cancellation of contracts for Iraqi
oilfield development now held by Russia, China, and France, posing serious
economic threats to these countries. War damage to Iraq, its people and
its oil fields - and lands beyond - has the potential to unleash
incalculable pent-up forces. The geopolitical stakes have never been
higher. There are no easy solutions. Any discussion of solutions must
adhere to scientific principles. Serious proposals for successor
technologies must be grounded first in thermodynamics and physics, rather
than business and economics. Many proposed substitutes for oil have
serious technical limitations.

Natural gas is a finite resource, and is already in decline in North
America. Hydrogen is a commonly cited panacea, but rather than being a
primary energy source, hydrogen is only an energy carrier and an energy
loser. Thus it provides no relief. Solar, wind, and nuclear are not
transport fuels, and have other limitations that may hinder large-scale
deployment. Technologies still in the laboratory, either proven or as yet
unproven, will by definition not be ready for use in the timeframe and
magnitude dictated by this problem. The key point is that the problem of
oil peak is here, and all known alternatives are either unready,
unsuitable, problematic, or limited in potential.

We call on all governments of the world to recognize the gravity of the
oil peak problem. Oil peak is an inevitability. The first warnings were
made public nearly half a century ago, and were largely ignored.
Increasingly since that time, the oil geology community has expressed
concerns about global oil supplies. Since 1995, a group of veteran
geologists has been issuing highly specific warnings based on exhaustive
analysis. It is well past the time to hear their call.