Posted on 5-11-2003
Apres
Le Peak
We, the members of the educational and scientific communities
involved in
the study of the worldwide peak of oil production, offer the
following
statement on the problem and its implications for our future.
Oil is a finite resource. A growing majority of the world's
leading
petroleum geologists now agree that more than 95 percent of
the world's
recoverable oil has been discovered. We therefore know, to a
reasonable
degree of certainty, the total amount of oil that was endowed
at the
beginning of the oil age.
As of this statement, mankind has consumed approximately half
of the
original endowment. We continue to consume this finite resource
at a rate
of about 75 million barrels per day - more than four times the
rate at
which we are finding new reserves. This is not a new situation:
every year
since 1981 we have found less oil than we use, and the difference
between
what is being discovered and what is being consumed is growing.
The
situation is now becoming critical and acute.
Oil is our most important energy source. Oil is the fuel that
enabled the
growth of modern civilization, and all industrialized countries
now rely
on oil to an extraordinary extent. It provides 40 percent of
our primary
energy, and oil's physical and chemical versatility and its
energy density
are such that no other known energy source can serve as a full
or even
adequate substitute. Oil is critical to our transportation infrastructure,
and it is the essence of industrial agriculture. It is equally
integral to
the chemical & pharmaceutical industries, much of the clothing
industry,
and a vast array of others. In short, oil is the oxygen of the
industrial
world. Worldwide oil production is peaking. After more than
fifty years of
research and analysis on the subject, it is now clear that the
rate at
which world oil producers can extract oil has reached, or is
extremely
close to reaching, the maximum level possible.
This is what is meant by 'oil peak'. With great effort and expenditure,
the current level of oil production can possibly be maintained
for a few
more years, but beyond that oil production must begin an irrevocable
decline. This decline is a certainty, guaranteed by the natural
laws that
govern our physical world, and nothing in science, technology
or
engineering can prevent it. The consumption of a finite resource
is simply
a finite endeavor. Attempts to delay the onset of this decline
only ensure
a steeper, more uncontrollable decline. Oil peak is a powerful
force of
global destabilization. The destabilizing effects of oil peak
reach deep
into our economic systems, our environment, and our geopolitics.
The
inexorable tightening of supply has already destabilized oil
markets,
creating extreme price responses to the smallest of disturbances.
Higher
oil prices create economic hardship by increasing the cost of
consumer
goods while reducing spendable income.
Efforts to shore up weakened economies through relaxed environmental
regulations, increased drilling in sensitive wildlife areas,
or shifts to
coal and nuclear technologies, pose serious threats to our environment
and
our climate. In the past, countries of the Middle East have
increased
production to relieve tight markets, but with more than 50 oil-
producing
countries now in decline and the Middle East nearing its own
peak, any
relief at this point will be limited and temporary. The current
military
action in Iraq could result in the cancellation of contracts
for Iraqi
oilfield development now held by Russia, China, and France,
posing serious
economic threats to these countries. War damage to Iraq, its
people and
its oil fields - and lands beyond - has the potential to unleash
incalculable pent-up forces. The geopolitical stakes have never
been
higher. There are no easy solutions. Any discussion of solutions
must
adhere to scientific principles. Serious proposals for successor
technologies must be grounded first in thermodynamics and physics,
rather
than business and economics. Many proposed substitutes for oil
have
serious technical limitations.
Natural gas is a finite resource, and is already in decline
in North
America. Hydrogen is a commonly cited panacea, but rather than
being a
primary energy source, hydrogen is only an energy carrier and
an energy
loser. Thus it provides no relief. Solar, wind, and nuclear
are not
transport fuels, and have other limitations that may hinder
large-scale
deployment. Technologies still in the laboratory, either proven
or as yet
unproven, will by definition not be ready for use in the timeframe
and
magnitude dictated by this problem. The key point is that the
problem of
oil peak is here, and all known alternatives are either unready,
unsuitable, problematic, or limited in potential.
We call on all governments of the world to recognize the gravity
of the
oil peak problem. Oil peak is an inevitability. The first warnings
were
made public nearly half a century ago, and were largely ignored.
Increasingly since that time, the oil geology community has
expressed
concerns about global oil supplies. Since 1995, a group of veteran
geologists has been issuing highly specific warnings based on
exhaustive
analysis. It is well past the time to hear their call.
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