Posted on 26-3-2004
World Population 9 billion by
2050
By Andrew Gumbel, The Independent
The world population is likely to increase to more than 9 billion
by the
middle of this century, roughly 50 per cent higher than it is
now,
according to a new study by the US Census Bureau. But the exponential
growth of the past 15 years is expected to slow significantly
as some
populations age and others are ravaged by the AIDS pandemic.
The Bureau calculated that the world is currently adding population
at a
rate of 1.2 per cent per year. That means 74 million new human
beings
every 12 months, and the equivalent of the entire population
of western
Europe being added every five years.
There has, however, been a reversal in the rate of growth since
population
hit the 6 billion mark in June 1999. It took just 12 years for
the
population to jump from 5 billion to 6 billion - the fastest
billion ever.
However, it is likely to take 14 years for the population to
reach 7
billion, 15 years after that to get to 8 billion, and another
20 years to
go as high as 9 billion.
The overall growth rate is expected to slow to 0.42 per cent
by 2050.
Already, 88 countries have fertility rates below the point where
current
population levels will be maintained. By 2050, that is projected
to be
true for the world as a whole.
The primary reason for this slowing, the Census Bureau said,
is that
fertile women of child-bearing age are making up an ever shrinking
proportion of the overall population. Largely, this is the result
of
people living longer. In 2002, people over the age of 65 made
up 7 per
cent of the world's population. By 2050, that figure is expected
to leap
to 17 per cent.
Among the many unknowns in these calculations, however, are
two
imponderable factors. One is the availability of contraceptives,
and the
other is the continuing devastating effect of AIDS. Some 20
million people
are believed to have died of AIDS so far, and another 40 million
are
believed to be infected with the HIV virus. Barring a major
medical
breakthrough, most of these people are expected to die in the
next 10
years or so. In parts of Africa, this could bring the average
life
expectancy down as low as 30 by 2010, a rate not seen in the
past 100
years. There are, however, some signs of hope for the future,
the Bureau
said. "If prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes
are
dramatically scaled up," it wrote, then the course of future
child
mortality rates can be changed. "Moreover, several countries,
including
Thailand, Senegal, and Uganda, have managed to stem the tide
of the
pandemic.
These examples give hope that the AIDS pandemic can be successfully
curtailed in other countries." On the issue of birth control,
the Bureau
reported: "Though contraceptive prevalence has risen dramatically
since
the 1960s, there are at least 100 million women in the world's
developing
countries today who would like to space or limit their pregnancies
but are
not using contraception. "These women, considered to have
'unmet need for
family planning', are found in greater numbers in Asia than
in other world
regions but make up higher proportions of the populations of
Sub-Saharan
African countries than of countries in other parts of the world."
The
Bureau's figures were based on purely statistical projections
and did not
factor in other imponderables such as the possibility of major
wars or the
possible impact of greatly increased populations on food supply
and other
environmental considerations.
They are, however, broadly in line with other population estimates
by the
United Nations and from other authoritative sources. According
to the
Popular Reference Bureau, a private research group, for example,
birth
rates are currently higher in India than they are in China,
say.
At current rates, India's population is likely to rise more
than 50 per
cent to 1.6 billion by 2050, causing it to overtake China as
the world's
most populous country. Those trends are, however, subject to
unpredictable
change. The Census Bureau's own projections have been modified
slightly as
population trends have shifted. In 1998, the Bureau forecast
a world
population of 9.3 billion by 2050. Now its best estimate is
9.1 billion.
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