Posted on 25-5-2002
Trouble
On Earth
By Alex Kirby, BBC News Online environment correspondent
The choices this generation makes will be crucial for our descendants,
according to a United Nations report. Published by the UN Environment
Programme (Unep), established 30 years ago, the report details
some real
improvements since then. But it says the overall trend is adverse,
especially in poor countries. By 2032, it predicts a planet
likely to have
been largely affected by human hands.
The report is Unep's Global Environment Outlook-3 (Geo-3), the
work of more
than 1,000 authors. It records some significant achievements
since the 1972
Stockholm environment conference which led to Unep's establishment.
In North America and Europe there have been improvements in
river and air
quality. The international effort to halt the chemical damage
to the ozone
layer is another success, with recovery to pre-1980 levels likely
by
mid-century. But generally, the report says, there has been
a steady
environmental decline, especially in much of the developing
world. It says
this is increasing people's vulnerability to natural hazards
like cyclones,
floods and droughts. Geo-3 says: "There is a growing gap between
rapid
rates of environmental degradation and the slow pace of social
response.
"The evidence suggests that many areas of the world are on trajectories
that will lead them into crisis, and that little time is left
for creating
effective responses." Dr Klaus Toepfer, Unep's executive director,
said:
"Geo-3 is neither a document of doom and gloom, nor a gloss
over the acute
challenges facing us all.
There are 2,220m more people alive today than in 1972.
Around 2bn ha of soil, 15% of the Earth's surface, is now classed
as
degraded by human activities.
About half the world's rivers are seriously depleted and polluted.
Serious
water shortages were affecting 40% of the world's people by
the mid-1990s
Since 1990 forests are estimated to have declined by 2.4%
Nearly 25% of mammal species and 12% of birds are regarded as
globally
threatened.
Just under a third of global fish stocks are defined as depleted,
over-exploited, or recovering from over-fishing.
"It is the most authoritative assessment of where we have been,
where we
have arrived, and where we are likely to go." Dr Toepfer told
BBC News
Online a lot had changed for the better in Unep's 30 years.
"Willy Brandt
used to demand 'blue sky over the Ruhr'", he said. "It is blue
now. So
Europeans can feel there's been real action, even if security,
health,
globalisation and immigration have now moved close to the top
of their
agenda."
Given the wrong decisions today, within 30 years we could be
living on a
drastically impoverished planet, Unep believes. By then, it
says, more than
half the world's people could be living in areas of severe water
stress.
Unep says hunger can be beaten. More than 70% of the Earth's
land surface
could be marked by the impact of cities, roads, mining and other
human
developments. Yet Geo-3 is emphatic that the future does not
have to be
like that. By 2032, it thinks, the proportion of hungry people
could be
just 2.5% of the world's population.
Levels of carbon dioxide, which many scientists think is intensifying
natural climate change to dangerous levels, could be starting
to stabilise.
The report examines four scenarios which it says "tell strongly
contrasting
but plausible stories" about how the world might develop. They
are:
Markets First, where the industrialised world's values prevail
through
market-driven developments.
Policy First, where governments take strong action to reach
specific goals.
Security First, "a world of great disparities, where inequality
and
conflict prevail".
Sustainabilty First, a world with a new model of development,
and more
equitable values and institutions.
Dr Toepfer said: "Without the environment there can never be
the kind of
development needed to secure a fair deal for this or future
generations.
"We need concrete actions, concrete timetables, and an iron
will. It cannot
be the responsibility of politicians alone. We are all shareholders
in this
enterprise."
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