Posted on 25-5-2002

Trouble On Earth
By Alex Kirby, BBC News Online environment correspondent

The choices this generation makes will be crucial for our descendants,
according to a United Nations report. Published by the UN Environment
Programme (Unep), established 30 years ago, the report details some real
improvements since then. But it says the overall trend is adverse,
especially in poor countries. By 2032, it predicts a planet likely to have
been largely affected by human hands.

The report is Unep's Global Environment Outlook-3 (Geo-3), the work of more
than 1,000 authors. It records some significant achievements since the 1972
Stockholm environment conference which led to Unep's establishment.

In North America and Europe there have been improvements in river and air
quality. The international effort to halt the chemical damage to the ozone
layer is another success, with recovery to pre-1980 levels likely by
mid-century. But generally, the report says, there has been a steady
environmental decline, especially in much of the developing world. It says
this is increasing people's vulnerability to natural hazards like cyclones,
floods and droughts. Geo-3 says: "There is a growing gap between rapid
rates of environmental degradation and the slow pace of social response.
"The evidence suggests that many areas of the world are on trajectories
that will lead them into crisis, and that little time is left for creating
effective responses." Dr Klaus Toepfer, Unep's executive director, said:
"Geo-3 is neither a document of doom and gloom, nor a gloss over the acute
challenges facing us all.

There are 2,220m more people alive today than in 1972.

Around 2bn ha of soil, 15% of the Earth's surface, is now classed as
degraded by human activities.

About half the world's rivers are seriously depleted and polluted. Serious
water shortages were affecting 40% of the world's people by the mid-1990s

Since 1990 forests are estimated to have declined by 2.4%

Nearly 25% of mammal species and 12% of birds are regarded as globally
threatened.

Just under a third of global fish stocks are defined as depleted,
over-exploited, or recovering from over-fishing.

"It is the most authoritative assessment of where we have been, where we
have arrived, and where we are likely to go." Dr Toepfer told BBC News
Online a lot had changed for the better in Unep's 30 years. "Willy Brandt
used to demand 'blue sky over the Ruhr'", he said. "It is blue now. So
Europeans can feel there's been real action, even if security, health,
globalisation and immigration have now moved close to the top of their
agenda."

Given the wrong decisions today, within 30 years we could be living on a
drastically impoverished planet, Unep believes. By then, it says, more than
half the world's people could be living in areas of severe water stress.

Unep says hunger can be beaten. More than 70% of the Earth's land surface
could be marked by the impact of cities, roads, mining and other human
developments. Yet Geo-3 is emphatic that the future does not have to be
like that. By 2032, it thinks, the proportion of hungry people could be
just 2.5% of the world's population.

Levels of carbon dioxide, which many scientists think is intensifying
natural climate change to dangerous levels, could be starting to stabilise.

The report examines four scenarios which it says "tell strongly contrasting
but plausible stories" about how the world might develop. They are:

Markets First, where the industrialised world's values prevail through
market-driven developments.

Policy First, where governments take strong action to reach specific goals.

Security First, "a world of great disparities, where inequality and
conflict prevail".

Sustainabilty First, a world with a new model of development, and more
equitable values and institutions.

Dr Toepfer said: "Without the environment there can never be the kind of
development needed to secure a fair deal for this or future generations.
"We need concrete actions, concrete timetables, and an iron will. It cannot
be the responsibility of politicians alone. We are all shareholders in this
enterprise."