Posted on 4-12-2003

EU Missing Kyoto Targets
by Andrew Osborn, December 3, 2003, The Guardian

The Kyoto climate change pact looked to be in trouble last night after the European commission warned that 13 of the EU's 15 member states were set to miss their emission reduction targets by a huge margin.

In a separate development, Russia appeared to turn its back on the protocol.

The 1997 United Nations pact is seen as the world's only chance to reduce global warming in a meaningful way and requires major industrialised countries to slash their 1990 greenhouse gas emissions.

Yesterday, however, Margot Wallstrom, the EU's environment commissioner, warned that the EU's own efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions were in crisis.

Ms Wallstrom said that only two countries, Sweden and the UK, were on track to meet the EU's target of cutting 1990 greenhouse emissions by 8% before 2010 and that 13 of the EU's 15 member states would easily miss that goal.

Brandishing an annual progress report on the subject, she said that the EU was on course to achieve only a 0.5% cut in its 1990 greenhouse gas levels with existing policies.

"This is serious," she said. "Time is running out. The figures in the report show that the policies and measures taken in the member states so far will not be enough.

"Unless more is done, the EU as a whole and the majority of its member states will miss their Kyoto emissions targets."

Denmark, Spain, Ireland, Austria and Belgium were the worst offenders, the report said, while the UK was forecast to overshoot the EU's target by a comfortable margin of 1.4% and Sweden by 3.3%.

That compared with Spain undershooting the target by 33.3% and Ireland by 26.8%.

"It's a lack of political will and good planning not a lack of (available) effective measures," said Ms Wallstrom.

Carbon dioxide emissions from cars and trucks were the main culprit, the report said, and continued to grow at an alarming rate.

Unless specific policy changes were made within 12-18 months, Ms Wallstrom warned, the trend would not be reversed.

At the moment, the Kyoto accord is not legally binding because not enough countries have ratified it.

Under a complex formula, this can only happen if the nations involved account for 55% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

This critical mass has not yet been reached because of the refusal of America - the world's biggest polluter - to commit to the protocol.

Kyoto's supporters had been hoping that Russia would ratify it instead.

However, a top Kremlin aide shattered such hopes yesterday, and said that Russia, the world's fourth biggest polluter, would do no such thing. "In its current form the Kyoto protocol places significant limitations on the economic growth of Russia," said Andrei Illarionov, an adviser to president Vladimir Putin.

"Of course, in this current form this protocol cannot be ratified."

Ms Wallstrom's officials played down Moscow's apparent rejection of the pact.

"This is a purely political statement," said her spokeswoman.

"They have not said no formally and we hope that they will stick to their commitments."

But Ms Wallstrom's own comments, made before the news from Moscow seeped out, betrayed unease. "We are holding our breath waiting for Russia," she said.

She added that Russia would be "short-sighted" not to ratify the protocol since global warming was bound to take its toll there just like everywhere else.

"If the permafrost areas start to melt, it (Russia) will have to pay a heck of a cost in replacing the infrastructure there."

Even if the Kyoto climate change was dead in the water Ms Wallstrom said that the problem of climate change would not go away. "Some say the Kyoto protocol is dead, but the problem is not dead."

"It doesn't matter where the emissions come from - it affects planet earth and there is no plan B."

· Polluters' progress

Each EU country has pledged to cut its emissions to help achieve the union's collective goal of reducing 1990 greenhouse gas emissions by 8% before 2010. Only two are expected to exceed their intended reduction

On target

Sweden +3.3%
UK +1.4%

Off target

Germany -1.3%
Luxembourg -5.6%
France -9.5%
Italy -10.2%
Greece -10.7%
Netherlands -12.1%
Portugal -14%
Finland -16.5%
Belgium -22.9%
Austria -24.5%
Ireland -26.8%
Spain -33.3%
Denmark -37.8%