Posted on 13-1-2003

One Generation To Save World*
by Paul Brown

The human race has only one or perhaps two generations to rescue itself,
according to the 2003 State of the World report by the Washington-based
Worldwatch Institute www.worldwatch.org

The longer that no remedial action is taken, the greater the degree of
misery and biological impoverishment that humankind must be prepared to
accept, the institute says in its 20th annual report. Overuse of resources,
pollution and destruction of natural areas continue to threaten life on the
planet. Conditions continue to deteriorate rapidly, the report says,
although there are some hopeful signs in that technical solutions to the
problems have been found and - where there is political will - adopted. In
most cases, though, nothing is being done.

Among the worst trends worldwide is that 420 million people live in
countries which no longer have enough crop land to grow their own food and
have to rely on imports. Around 1.2 billion people, or about a fifth of the
world's population, live in absolute poverty - defined as surviving on the
equivalent of less than $1, or 62p, a day. About one quarter of the
developing world's crop land is being degraded, and the rate is increasing.
The greatest threat is not a shortage of land, says the report, but a
shortage of water, with more than 500 million people living in regions
prone to chronic drought. By 2025 that number is likely to have increased
at least fivefold, to between 2.4bn and 3.4bn. A probable world population
increase of 27% over the same period will create social and ecological
instability. Global warming is accelerating, and carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere has reached 370.9 parts per million, the highest level for at
least 420,000 years and probably for 20m years. Toxic chemicals are being
released in ever-increasing quantities, and
global production of hazardous waste has reached more than 300m tonnes a
year. There is only a vague idea of what damage this does to humans and
natural systems, the report says. Another threat is the movement of highly
invasive species to regions where they may pose problems to native species.

The state of the world's natural life support system is perhaps the most
worrying indicator for the future, says the report. About 30% of the
world's surviving forests are seriously fragmented or degraded, and they
are being cut down at the rate of 50,000sq miles a year, it says. Wetlands
have been reduced by 50% over the last century. Coral reefs, the world's
most diverse aquatic systems, are suffering the effects of overfishing,
pollution, epidemic diseases and rising temperatures. A quarter of the
world's mammal species and 12% of the birds are in danger of extinction.

On the hopeful side, the report says that renewable energy technologies
have now developed sufficiently to supply the world. They could
significantly reduce the threat to the world from pollution - but currently
there is a lack of political will to introduce them fast enough. Another
industry which causes widespread destruction, mining for minerals, could be
largely replaced by re-use and recycling. Mining consumes 10% of the
world's energy, spews out toxic emissions, and threatens 40% of the world's
undeveloped forests but these effects could be drastically reduced.

Another crisis which the report identifies is in the world's cities, where
one billion people seek shelter in shanty towns, often on hillsides, flood
plains, in rubbish dumps or downstream of industrial polluters.

The inhabitants of these settlements live at constant threat of eviction,
but also of natural disasters and disease. Urban centers in the south now
dominate the ranks of the world's largest cities. Slum dwellers are
organizing for greater rights and better lives, the report says. One of the
great challenges for governments is to help their poorest citizens feel
secure in their own homes, make a living and improve their environment.

Dark clouds, silver linings

*·* Malaria claims 7,000 lives every day

*·* Bird extinctions running at 50 times natural rate

*·* Global rate of ice melt more than doubled since 1988; sea levels may
rise 27cm by 2100

*·* New fishing technologies help to locate and further exploit declining
stocks


Reasons for hope

*·* Populations have stabilized in Europe and much of south-east Asia

*·* Organic farming is the fastest-growing sector of world agricultural
economy

*·* Wind and photovoltaic electricity generating capacity to increase 30% a
year for five years (1% for fossil fuels)

*·* Production of ozone-depleting CFCs fell 81% in the 90s, slowing growth
in ozone hole.