Posted on 3-7-2003
Global
Warming Fact Not Theory
By Michael McCarthy
LONDON - In an astonishing announcement on global warming and
extreme
weather, the World Meteorological Organisation has signalled
that the
world's weather is going haywire.
In a startling report, the WMO, which normally produces detailed
scientific
reports and staid statistics at the year's end, highlighted
record extremes
in weather and climate occurring all over the world in recent
weeks, from
Switzerland's hottest-ever June to a record month for tornadoes
in the
United States - and linked them to climate change. The unprecedented
warning takes its force and significance from the fact that
it is coming
from an impeccably respected UN organisation that is not given
to
hyperbole. The Geneva-based body, to which the weather services
of 185
countries contribute, takes the view that events this year in
Europe,
America and Asia are so remarkable that the world needs to be
made aware of
it immediately.
The extreme weather it documents, such as record high and low
temperatures,
record rainfall and record storms in different parts of the
world, is
consistent with predictions of global warming. Supercomputer
models show
that, as the atmosphere warms, the climate not only becomes
hotter but much
more unstable. "Recent scientific assessments indicate that,
as the global
temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number
and
intensity of extreme events might increase," the WMO said, giving
a
striking series of examples:
* In southern France, record temperatures were recorded in June,
rising
above 40C in places -- temperatures of 5C to 7C above average.
* In Switzerland, it was the hottest June in at least 250 years,
environmental historians said. In Geneva, since May 29, daytime
temperatures have not fallen below 25C, making it the hottest
June recorded.
* In the United States, there were 562 May tornadoes, which
caused 41
deaths. This set a record for any month. The previous record
was 399 in
June 1992.
* In India, this year's pre-monsoon heatwave brought peak temperatures
of
45C, or 2C to 5C above the norm. At least 1,400 people died
in India due to
the hot weather.
* In Sri Lanka, heavy rainfall from Tropical Cyclone 01B exacerbated
wet
conditions, resulting in flooding and landslides and killing
at least 300
people. The infrastructure and economy of southwest Sri Lanka
was heavily
damaged. A reduction of 20-30 per cent is expected in the output
of
low-grown tea in the next three months.
* Last month was also the hottest in England and Wales since
1976, with
average temperatures of 16C.
The WMO said: "These record extreme events (high temperatures,
low
temperatures and high rainfall amounts and droughts) all go
into
calculating the monthly and annual averages, which, for temperatures,
have
been gradually increasing over the past 100 years. "New record
extreme
events occur every year somewhere in the globe, but in recent
years the
number of such extremes have been increasing." According to
recent
climate-change scientific assessment reports of the joint WMO/United
Nations Environmental Programme Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change,
the global average surface temperature has increased since 1861.
Over the
20th century the increase has been around 0.6C. "New analyses
of proxy data
for the northern hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperature
in
the 20th century is likely to have been the largest in any century
during
the past 1,000 years."
While the trend towards warmer temperatures has been uneven
over the past
century, the trend since 1976 is roughly three times that for
the whole
period. Global average land and sea surface temperatures in
May 2003 were
the second highest since records began in 1880. Considering
land
temperatures only, last May was the warmest on record. It is
possible that
2003 will be the hottest year ever recorded. The 10 hottest
years in the
143-year-old global temperature record have now all been since
1990, with
the three hottest being 1998, 2002 and 2001.
The unstable world of climate change has long been a prediction.
Now, the
WMO says, it is a reality.
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