Posted on 16-12-2002

Hot ... Too Hot
By J.R. Pegg (Photo show Lester Brown)

WASHINGTON, DC, December 11, 2002 (ENS) - Temperature data for the first 11
months of the year show that the average global temperature is on the rise.
The new data indicates that 2002 will go down in the recordbooks as the
second warmest year to date, exceeded only by 1998, since recordkeeping of
global temperatures began in 1867.

Temperatures for the first 11 months of 2002 averaged 14.65 degrees Celsius
(58.37 degrees Fahrenheit), according to data from National Aeronautics and
Space Administration's (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies. This
average is down slightly from 1998's record high of 14.69 degrees Celsius
(58.44 degrees Fahrenheit), but it rises above the average temperature for
the period from 1951 to 1980 - 14 degrees Celsius (57.2 degrees
Fahrenheit). This latest data is further evidence that the trend of rising
temperature is gaining momentum and could have far reaching consequences
for the planet and its inhabitants, according to Lester Brown, president of
the Earth Policy Institute, a Washington, DC think tank. "The 15 warmest
years since record keeping began have come since 1980 and the three warmest
years have come in the last five years," Brown said at a press briefing
held today in Washington. Each month since November 2001 has been at least
half a degree Celsius warmer than average and the January 2002 temperature
was the highest on record for January. March 2002 was also the highest on
record, and in seven of the eight following months, the temperature was
either the second or third highest on record.

Skeptics of the human cause of climate change point to natural climate
variability as a likely cause of temperature increase, but the current rise
in temperature tracks increased levels of carbon dioxide emissions over the
past 50 years. From 1950 to 2001, atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide have risen from 311.26 parts per million to 370.89 parts per million.

The average temperature over that same time rose from 13.83 degrees Celsius
(56.89 degrees Fahrenheit) to 14.53 degrees Celsius (58.15 degrees
Fahrenheit). If atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise as
projected, the Earth's average temperature will rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees
Celsius during this century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), a body composed of some 1,500 climate scientists
from around the world.

IPCC studies have found human activities are becoming the dominant
influence on climate change.

Advocates of immediate action to combat global warming scored a victory
yesterday when the Canadian and New Zealand governments voted to ratify the
Kyoto Protocol. The protocol under the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change sets reduction targets for a basket of six greenhouse
gases linked to global warming, the most abundant being carbon dioxide. The
Kyoto Protocol becomes law when a minimum of 55 countries covering at least
55 percent of 1990 greenhouse gas emissions have ratified. Canada's vote
brings the total to 98 countries, covering 40.7 percent of greenhouse
emissions. Even with Canada and New Zealand, the Kyoto Protocol will not
enter into force until Russia ratifies it, and there is concern that the
Russian government might renege on its pledge to sign onto the accord in
2003. Some environmentalists believe the refusal of the United States to
ratify the Kyoto Protocol has undermined the potential success of the
treaty. The United States is responsible for some 25 percent of global
greenhouse gas emissions. The Bush administration's climate change policy
calls for further study to reduce scientific uncertainty before mandating
action. While President George W. Bush views the emissions limits under the
Kyoto Protocol as too demanding on the U.S. economy, Brown, of the Earth
Policy Institute, believes the Kyoto Protocol "will soon be seen as
completely inadequate."

The consequences of rising temperature, Brown warns, will manifest in
further heat waves, falling agricultural production and melting ice. Recent
events including the mounting temperature offer evidence of these
consequences, he maintains. In 2002, more ice melted from the surface of
Greenland than any other year on record. At the same time, the ice cover in
the Arctic Ocean shrank to two million square miles, compared to an average
of 2.4 million square miles during the preceding 23 years. Melting ice in
the sea does not affect sea level, but it does cause warming. When incoming
sunlight hits snow and ice, some 80 percent of the light is reflected and
the rest is converted to heat. The ratio is flipped when sunlight hits
water, with 80 percent of the light converted to heat. Ice in mountain
ranges across the world is also melting at an increasing rate, with
possible negative ramifications for water flows in many major river
systems. Mt. Kiliminjaro, for example, has lost 80 percent of its snow ice
cover since 1900.

A record heat wave hit India in May, with temperatures soaring to 45.6
degrees Celsius (114 degrees Fahrenheit). More than 1,000 people living in
the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh died from the heat, Brown reminded the
journalists today, an indication of how vulnerable many people in the
developing world are to extreme heat waves.

Rising temperatures are likely to negatively affect agricultural
production, as crop yields fall when temperatures climb, said Brown. Higher
summer temperatures in the northern hemisphere, as well as lower rainfall,
caused the 2002 world grain harvest to fall to 1,813 million tons, some 80
tons below world consumption. "The scientific rule of thumb is that a
degree Celsius rise in temperature above the optimum reduces grain yields
by 10 percent," Brown said. The impact of global warming on agricultural
production might be the force that finally pushes the world to combat
climate change, Brown said. It is well documented that the harmful impacts
of climate change are likely to be felt most in the developing world, but
Brown argues that the United States and other developed countries will feel
an economic effect as those countries face food shortages. Crops will fail
due to drought, flood, extreme storms and sea level rise linked with global
warming, Brown warned.

Brown, who founded the Worldwatch Institute in 1974 as a research institute
to address global environmental issues, started his career as a farmer,
growing tomatoes in southern New Jersey with his younger brother during
high school and college. Shortly after earning a degree in agricultural
science from Rutgers University in 1955, he spent six months living in
rural India, and went on to earn a Master of Public Administration from
Harvard. In 1984, with Worldwatch, Brown launched the State of the World
reports. These annual assessments, translated into some 30 languages, have
become the Bible of the global environmental movement.

Brown has been warning that environmental degradation would lead to global
food shortages for many years, and he is still expressing the same warning.
On November 7, for instance, he gave a keynote lecture entitled "Rising
Temperatures, Falling Water Tables, and World Food Security" at the closed
door Forum 2002 - From Feed to Food, sponsored by BASF in Brussels. "Rising
grain prices could cause political instability in many Third World
countries," Brown said today. "This could be the economic indicator that
first signals the problem and wakes people up to see that our future is at
stake," Brown said. "We have to realize that we must get serious about
climate change."